The #6 Crimson Tide head to Bud Walton Arena Wednesday night and take on the #20 Razorbacks for a big time road test. Arkansas has beaten 4 teams in a row, coming into this rematch against the Tide. Alabama has won 3 in a row. One thing is certain here, Eric Musselman is a psycho and will make sure his guys give Bama everything they got. Fast pace and in your shorts for 40 minutes. Look for Moses Moody to fill it up and be a major threat. The razorbacks will look to stay hot heading into the end of the season. Back the razorbacks at the crib. Woo Pig!
The Pick: Arkansas -1 @ -110
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The mid major play of the day is the 14-9 (8-12 ATS) Mercer Bears -4 at home against the 18-6 (14-7 ATS) Chattanooga Mocs. Both teams are in good form. The Mocs have won 4 of their last 5 games and Mercer has won 3 of their last 5 games. The Mocs have also beaten Mercer this year. Back in January, Chattanooga won at home against Mercer 83-80. So you must be wondering, why is Mercer -4? Well let’s take a deeper look into that January game. First off, Mercer had a 19 point lead in that game and blew the win late. Second off, they had 14 turnovers to Chattanooga’s 7. Looking at each teams turnover % KenPom numbers, Mercer ranks 121st in committing turnovers while the Mocs rank 187th in forcing turnovers. This leads me to think the turnover differential should not be this high. Lastly, Chattanooga shot 22 free throws at home vs Mercer’s 9. That is some home cookin officiating. Look for that number to be closer to even with Mercer at home this time around.
Mercer ranks 85th on offense and 215th on defense, per KenPom. Chattanooga ranks 139th on offense and 185th on defense. Mercer should have an advantage inside. Mercer ranks 33rd in 2 point shooting % while Chattanooga ranks 253rd defending the 2. Mercer also is equipped to shutdown what Chattanooga does best, shooting the 3. Mercer ranks 69th defending the 3 while Chattanooga ranks 88th shooting the 3.
Mercer overall shoots the ball well. The Bears rank 27th in effective FG % while the Mocs rank 132nd in this category.
Vegas knows this Mercer team matches up well against a talented Chattanooga bunch hence the -4 line. Vegas sees right through that 3 point home win in January and so do I. Take Mercer to win and cover -4 at home Wednesday evening on Senior Night. Best of luck!
The Pick: Mercer -4 @ -110
NCAAB Expert Picks
Arkansas -1 @ -110 (Click to bet)
Mercer -4 @ -110 (Click to bet)