The Mid Major Play of the day is the 16-10 (10-12 ATS) South Alabama Jaguars -5 in the first round of the Sun Belt Tournament against the 7-18 (14-10-1) Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. South Alabama comes into this game winning 8 of their last 10 games. Their 2 losses were against the best team in the conference Georgia State. Louisiana Monroe has won 3 of their last 10 games and is one of the worst teams in the conference.
South Alabama ranks 169th on offense and 273rd on defense, per KenPom. Louisiana Monroe ranks 317th on offense and 225th on defense. South Alabama holds advantages all over the board. South Alabama is ranked 100th in 3 point shooting % while Louisiana Monroe is 282nd defending the 3. South Alabama shoots better in general. The Jaguars rank 131st in Offense Effective FG % while Louisiana Monroe ranks 244th in this category.
South Alabama holds an advantage on the boards as well. The Jaguars average 35.7 rebounds per game while the Warhawks average 30.0 rebounds per game. Also, South Alabama takes care of the ball. The Jaguars rank 108th in Turnover %. The Warhawks turn the ball over a lot ranking 244th in this category.
I know this is a chalky play with the Jaguars -5, but the stats back South Alabama all the way. I expect South Alabama to take care of business in the first round of the Sunbelt Tournament and win this game by double digits. They will be focused after back to back losses against Georgia State and hungry to run up the score against an inferior opponent. Look for do-it-all Senior Guard Michael Flowers to have a big game and lead the Jaguars to a cover Friday night. Best of luck!
The Pick: South Alabama -5 @ -110
NCAAB Expert Picks
South Alabama -5 @ -110 (Click to bet)