The Mid-Major Play of the day takes us to the SoCon Championship game. I am taking the 18-10 (12-13 ATS) Mercer Bears +5 against the 20-8 (16-12 ATS) UNC Greensboro Spartans.
This will be Mercer's 4th game in four days and UNCG’s 3rd game in three days. Even though Mercer has played an extra game, their wins Friday and Sunday were blowouts that allowed them to rest players in the 2nd half.
Both of UNCG’s wins stayed tight all the way until the end where the Spartans pulled away with free throws. UNCG relies on one player to carry the load offensively and that’s senior Guard Isaiah Miller. Mercer has a variety of different players that can score, which is crucial in situations where games are being played in consecutive days.
Mercer ranks 100th on offense and 189th on defense, per KenPom. UNCG ranks 136th on offense and 77th on defense. Mercer is efficient scoring the basketball. The Bears rank 38th in 3 point shooting % and 41st in 2 point shooting %. Mercer’s effective FG % is 30th while UNCG’s is 249th. Mercer also holds an edge at the free-throw line, ranking 157th compared to UNCG’s 228th ranking.
I just think playing games multiple days in a row hurts UNCG more than Mercer. Yes, UNCG holds a strong edge defensively, but Mercer has many different scoring options. During their three-game SoCon tournament stretch, Mercer has had a different leading scoring each game. So, if one guy has tired legs and is off tonight, I expect another Bear to step up and knock down shots.
UNCG relying on one man to do it all scares me in this spot. Isaiah Miller has lead the team in scoring in both tournament games so far, putting up 21 points in each game. He shot 14 shots one game and 21 shots the other game. If fatigue sets in for him tonight, I think they will have a tough time on the offensive end. I like the Mercer Bears to keep this game extremely close and cover the +5. Best of luck!
Pick: Mercer +5 @ -109
NCAAB Expert Picks
Mercer +5 @ -109 (Click to bet)