Purdue vs. Florida State Prediction: Are Boilermakers Legitimate Championship Contenders?

College basketball expert Mike Spector gives his prediction for the highly anticipated Purdue Boilermakers vs. Florida State Seminoles matchup Tuesday night.
Mike Spector |
Tue, November 30, 9:08 AM EST | 4 min read
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link
r-ncaab-cbb-generic-basketball.jpg

Purdue vs. Florida State Prediction: Are Boilermakers Legitimate Championship Contenders?

On Tuesday's slate, the Florida State Seminoles and Purdue Boilermakers headline one of six Big Ten/ACC Challenge games. Purdue has put itself into the conversation of many as a legitimate national championship contender. Will they again play like a team that can cut down the nets in March, or will Florida State remind everyone why they were thought of as potential ACC champions in the preseason?

Purdue vs. Florida State Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Tuesday, November 30, 2021Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ETWhere To Watch: ESPN

Click Here For Purdue vs. Florida State Odds

Purdue vs. Florida State Prediction

Florida State is 5-1 and has won four straight games since a disappointing 71-55 loss to their biggest non-conference rivals, the Florida Gators. Like many of Leonard Hamilton's past teams, the Seminoles are one of the country's deepest. They have 11 players averaging at least ten minutes per game and utilize their depth by applying relentless full-court man-to-man pressure in an attempt to wear opposing teams down. As a result of that pressure, they force turnovers on 27% of opponents' possessions, ranking ninth in the country. In addition, they utilize their unique length to alter shots around the rim, and their 18% blocked shot percentage is the 11th-highest in the nation.

To start the season, Purdue is 6-0 and has covered the spread in five of those six games. They have two top-25 wins to their name, beating North Carolina and Villanova on consecutive days in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament. The Boilermakers are a well-rounded squad with everything a coach could ask for. They have a potential top-five draft pick at point guard in Jaden Ivey, two outstanding big men in Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, and surround them with knock-down shooters like Caleb Furst and Sasha Stefanovic.

Florida State is going to have their hands full defensively with this Purdue offense. Per KenPom, the Boilermakers rank second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, second in effective field goal percentage, and fourth in offensive rebounding percentage, securing 41.3% of their misses. In addition, they are the country's fifth-best three-point shooting team (43.5%) and fourth-best two-point shooting team (60.8%).

While not many teams can match up with the size Purdue trots out on their frontline, Florida State on paper would be able to go toe-toe with Purdue's big men. Unfortunately, however, two of Florida State's most important big men, Tanor Ngom (knee) and Naheem McLeod (ankle), have been ruled out for tonight's contest. In addition, starting point guard RayQuan Evans (personal) has also been ruled out.

Florida State is one of the most well-positioned teams in the country to overcome a loss of depth, but making up for those three players is too tall of an ask against a team like Purdue. Ngom and McLeod stand 7'2" and 7'4" inches tall, respectively, and they would have given Hamilton's team a lot of versatility in defending Purdue's Williams (6'10") and Edey (7'4"). However, without those two anchoring the paint, that job is left to John Butler and Malik Osborne, with the latter being Florida State's leading scorer (12.5 PPG). Thus, look for Matt Painter's two big men to attack Osborne early and often, as sending him to the bench with foul trouble gives Purdue a distinct advantage.

It will be interesting to see if Hamilton still uses his full-court pressure in a game where his bench is much more limited, as he may be more tempted to turn this into a half-court game. Either way, Purdue has proven in a small sample size that they can win in various ways, as a track meet against UNC or in a half-court grind against Villanova. With this game in front of a raucous Mackey Arena crowd, the Seminoles will need to avoid an early barrage.

Purdue has covered each of their last four games and is 4-1 ATS in their previous five home games. Look for them to dominate an undermanned Florida State team tonight.

Purdue vs. Florida State Pick

Mike Spector
@MikeSpector01

Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.

Bonus Bets
Bet $10, Win $200Bet $10, Get $200 Free On Any Knicks GameCLAIM OFFER