Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego State Prediction: Who Will Win the Jerry Colangelo Classic?

Saint Mary’s vs San Diego State prediction and pick for Friday's college basketball matchup. Jason Radowitz breaks down the game and gives his best bet
Jason Radowitz |
Fri, December 17, 9:00 AM EST | 4 min read
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Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego State Prediction: Who Will Win the Jerry Colangelo Classic?

If you enjoy late-night college basketball, this is the game for you. The Saint Mary’s Gaels will take on the San Diego State Aztecs at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

This game will be played on a neutral court with Saint Mary’s sitting as a three-point favorite. The Gaels are currently 10-2 on the year with acceptable losses to Wisconsin and Colorado State. Saint. Mary’s has already defeated quality teams like Notre Dame, Oregon, and Utah State.

On the other hand, San Diego State is 6-3 on the year with acceptable losses to NYU, USC, and Michigan. However, the Aztecs haven’t won a game against a top 100 opponent. 

Here are our picks and predictions for the Jerry Colangelo Classic between the Saint Mary’s Gaels and San Diego State Aztecs.

Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego State Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Friday, December 17, 2021

Game Time: 10:00 p.m. ET

Where To Watch: FLO Sports

Saint Mary's vs. San Diego State odds

Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego State INJURY REPORT

Saint Mary’s

No Injuries Reported

San Diego State

Questionable: F Aguek Arop (Hip), F Tahirou Diabate (Illness),

Out: G Lamont Butler (Wrist)

Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego State Prediction

Tonight’s game will feature two of the best defensive teams in the nation. According to KenPom, San Diego State is currently 11th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency while Saint Mary’s is 8th in the nation in that category.

Now the question is, which offense can have more success?

Saint Mary’s isn’t getting to the line at a high rate but the Gaels are shooting a 53.1 percent effective field goal percentage while shooting 34.3 percent from deep and 54.1 percent from inside the arc.

Of course, San Diego State has held opponents to 27.8 percent from long range and 44.2 percent from inside the arc. The Aztecs have also been lucky at the foul line as opponents are only shooting 60.6 percent against them on the season.

There will be room for Saint Mary’s to earn second chance opportunities. San Diego State currently has two key forwards questionable. The Aztecs are allowing teams to offensive rebound 30.2 percent of the time, which is a pretty high rate.

On the other hand, the Aztecs certainly have the worst offense. San Diego State is shooting a 45.9 percent effective field goal percentage while allowing 29.3 percent from deep and 47 percent from inside the arc. Even from the foul line, the Aztecs have struggled offensively, shooting 66.1 percent from the line.

The Gaels are one of the best teams in the nation at limiting offensive rebounds and with the way the Aztecs have shot the ball, things just don’t look very promising for San Diego State.

San Diego State has been getting to the line at a high rate, but as I said before, they’re not hitting foul shots at a solid rate, to begin with. That along with the fact that Saint Mary’s rarely fouls teams in the first place.

I’ll rely on Saint. Mary’s to get the job done at -3.

Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Pick

Jason Radowitz
@Jason_Radowitz

Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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