Seton Hall vs. Marquette Prediction: Where Is the Value Bet in This Big East Matchup?

Seton Hall vs. Marquette predictions and pick for Wednesday's college basketball matchup in the Big East. Handicapper LightningLocks analyzes this showdown between the Seton Hall Pirates and Marquette Golden Eagles.
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Seton Hall vs. Marquette Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Wednesday, January 26

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET

Where to Watch: FS1

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Seton Hall vs. Marquette Line Movement

Seton Hall vs. Marquette Prediction

Tonight we have a battle of two Big East teams on FS1. Seton Hall is off of an absolute blowout loss at home to St. Johns, while Marquette, one of the hottest teams in the Big East, has won 6 in a row, including beating Xavier, Villanova, and these same Pirates 11 days ago. So you are wondering what will change tonight?

The last game these two teams played was mired in controversy. The game was tied at 72. Marquette's Greg Elliott leaned into the Pirates' Bryce Aiken while attempting a shot, elbowing Aiken in the nose. But the officials called the foul on Aiken, and Elliott's free throw with one second left won the game for Marquette. Seton Hall was talking about that play for a week, and they won at St. John's as they were fired up waiting to play again. They were not so fired up on the back-to-back as we had a massive play on St. John's +7 two nights ago when they destroyed Seton Hall. We were prepared and saw that coming for numerous reasons. Including the fact Seton Hall had this game circled and wants a piece of Shaka and the boys tonight.

This feels like a Bob Barker - Adam Sandler game, and we will be on Bob Barker as we don't want a piece; we want the whole thing. If you delve further into the previous game, there is only one thing that stands out: Seton Hall's size and width advantage in the game. The Pirates got 19 more rebounds as Ike Obiagu had 13 rebounds and Alexis Yetna had 16 as they outrebounded the Marquette team. When you do that, and ten of them are offensive, you should get more shots up, but this game was even and came down to terrible free-throw shooting by Seton Hall. The 3-point infatuation teams get into is also key. Seton Hall is 26th in the country in Free Throw percentage, so we expect them not to have a bad night at the line. This will be the key to the game as numbers don't lie, and Seton Hall, with their size, gets over 37 rebounds a game, good for 20th in the country. At the same time, Marquette gives up almost 37 a game which is 349th in the country out of 353 teams!

Bryce Aiken, the man who got a concussion on that final play, hasn't played since and is questionable as of now. He is a game-time decision, but we are leaning towards playing tonight. If Aiken doesn't, we can trust that Seton Hall won't have 20 turnovers again, which averages out to 28% of your possessions well above their average (17%). However, Aiken did have five turnovers himself, so if he plays, he knows what happened as Marquette scored 20 points on those 20 turnovers, and that's one of the reasons we feel this game will be completely different.

As we mentioned, we have the size advantage, and Ike Obiagu not only got all the rebounds, the man blocked seven shots, so if you can alter the shot and get the rebound, this should make this a different game once they clean up the turnovers. Seton Hall is a top defensive team ranking 39th in the country, and with the big man blocking and the twin towers getting all the rebounds, they need to hit some threes and clean up the turnovers, and we will have a different result tonight.

We have Seton Hall -5.5. We see some 6's popping up, but we feel the spread won't matter tonight. In a double-digit win at home, look for the Pirates to bring us the golden treasure we want tonight. Lay the points.

Seton Hall vs. Marquette Pick

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