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Lightning Lock shares his favorite play on the College Basketball slate. Today, we look to Texas Tech to get the job done.

Texas vs Texas Tech Prediction: Trust the Red Raiders

The most anticipated event in Texas this year and probably since Texas played USC for the national championship. Chris Beard left Texas Tech where he made a name for himself as a great coach and went to Texas of all places. This is like leaving the Red Sox for the Yankees, the Giants for the Dodgers, Auburn for Alabama, you just don't do that in Texas. The fact both teams are ranked and students have been sitting outside for days to get into this game to boo Chris Beard tells you all you need to know about this game.

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Texas vs Texas Tech Prediction

This game is so big that Ric Flair is there to get these fans rowdy and riled up tonight and now the question becomes can talk translate into a win. We thought both these teams were looking ahead to this game and Texas sure looked like it as they blew a nice lead (17 points) and barely beat Tennessee in a defensive struggle.

You look at that game and really they shot well. If not they would have lost as Tennesee can't hit a free throw (8-16). Tech on the other hand destroyed Miss St by 26 as it looked like they were warming up for this game with hot shooting and great defense.  Tech has had a lot of guys out but they just don't give up which is why they are 14th in the country.

They beat Kansas very short-handed and almost did it again at Kansas where no one ever wins (Kentucky did in a rarity this weekend) as they took them to overtime. This team wins with defense at home. They have held their last six opponents at home to 50, 65, 60, 57, 67, 53 and that 67 is a high this year without the overtime game to Kansas (actually take away Kansas and no team has gotten over 60 on them). This team doesn't have stars (5 guys averaging double digits scoring), they play like a team and this is why they are 13-0 at home and are coming off their best assist game of the year(20 tied for most). 

Texas is good but they are built to win with defense the same as Tech. Texas has one huge problem. If you can't score you can't win. This team is 254th in scoring and 241st in rebounding which is another reason they can't score. When you aren't getting extra chances you're not scoring and it's not like the 3 ball can save them as they are 198th  shooting just over 33% there. This team has honestly gotten lucky that teams against them can't hit their ft's. They have had teams shoot under 62% from the free throw line (Tech only shoots 68% so again very lucky).

Looking at Texas on the road, they lost to Gonzaga by double digits, Seton Hall only scoring 60, Oklahoma's St losing by 13 (scored 51), Iowa st by 9. They have five losses and four of them are on the road and three by 9 or more. This team has not been impressive on the road at all and they won't hold Tech to 51 or less like their last three opponents because Tech shoots almost 48% from the field, good for 32nd in the country and almost 75 points a game.  

Tech hasn't lost at home all year, this team and city feel betrayed by the Texas coach, a team that has covered their last four games and their last five at home, a team that shoots and rebounds better and has Ric Flair there to get them fired up to beat the enemy. We feel 4 is a low # as long as Tech shoots 70% from the free throw line because there will be a lot of fouls we like the Red Raiders to shoot down the horns tonight. There will be no hook 'em or hooks, lay the 4 with the Red Raiders as they are out for blood tonight as are we. We played this game at Fanduel -4 and we see it readily available in other books.

Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Line Movement

Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick

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