San Diego State vs. Colorado State Prediction: Expect Points in This Mountain West Rematch
San Diego State vs. Colorado State Prediction: Expect Points in This Mountain West Rematch
The “Game of the Day” among this small 18-game Friday college basketball slate is a Mountain West Conference rematch between San Diego State and Colorado State. The first game between these teams provided one of the season’s more shocking results, as the Aztecs ended the Rams’ 11-game winning streak to start the season and blew Colorado State out by 30 points on their home floor.
While these two teams are still among the top four teams in the Mountain West, they could each use a statement victory to bolster their NCAA Tournament at-large resume.
Will this rematch play out differently than their January 8th meeting? Here are our picks and predictions for the Mountain West matchup between San Diego State and Colorado State.
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San Diego State vs. Colorado State Prediction
San Diego State (12-5, 4-2) owns impressive non-conference wins over Georgetown, Arizona State, and Saint Mary’s. The Aztecs have alternated wins and losses over the last four games but have dominated in their previous three wins, each coming by at least 25 points.
San Diego State is one of the country’s best defensive teams. They rank second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and effective field goal percentage defense. In addition, they rank in the top 18 in the country in 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed.
Colorado State (16-3, 6-3) has lost each of its last two games due to a leaky defense that has allowed its two highest point totals of the season. The Rams have allowed 172 combined points to UNLV and Wyoming, after starting the season holding 15 of their first 17 opponents to fewer than 80 points. Offensively, Colorado State ranks in the top 18 in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, 3-point and 2-point percentage, and free throw percentage.
The metrics alone suggest we are in for a fascinating rematch between these teams, as one of the country’s most potent offenses faces one of the more impenetrable defenses.
In their first meeting, Colorado State shot just 12-for-43 from the field and 3-for-20 from 3-point range. But given how efficient their offense has been throughout the season, we would expect some positive regression offensively. San Diego State does a great job defensively of fighting through screens and recovering in pick-and-roll situations, but we would expect Rams head coach Niko Medved to devise ways to get his guards going downhill.
San Diego State has been one of the most profitable teams to the under this season, cashing the under in 12 of their 17 games. In addition, Colorado State has seen the under cash in six of their nine league games. However, between the Rams’ vulnerability defensively of late but consistent ability to score the basketball, we expect a higher-scoring game that exceeds the projected total in this rematch.
San Diego State vs. Colorado State Line Movement
San Diego State vs. Colorado State Pick
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