Duke vs North Carolina Prediction: Can you Trust UNC at Home?

Can you trust UNC at home? Jason Radowitz shares his pick for the UNC vs Duke game.
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Duke vs North Carolina Prediction: Can you Trust UNC at Home?

Tonight, we'll get to watch one of the best rivalries in sports. The Duke Blue Devils will head on over to Chappel Hill, North Carolina for a big ACC rivalry matchup.

Duke is currently 18-3 on the year and 8-2 in conference play in coach Mike Krzyzewski's final season as head coach of the Duke Blue Devils. Meanwhile, the North Carolina Tar Heels have won four straight games in conference play and are now 8-3 in the ACC.

Can UNC upset Duke at home? Here are our picks and predictions for the ACC matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels.

Duke vs North Carolina Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Saturday, February 5
  • Game Time: 6:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click here for Duke vs UNC odds

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Duke vs North Carolina Injury Report

Duke

No Injuries to Report

North Carolina

Out: Anthony Harris G (Undisclosed), Dawson Garcia F (Personal)

Duke vs North Carolina Betting Line Movement

Duke vs North Carolina Prediction

The Duke Blue Devils currently have what it takes to win a National Championship. I'm not sure I can say the same about the North Carolina Tar Heels.

However, a win tonight against Duke would change my mind.

Duke is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 54.8 percent while only turning the ball over 15.1 percent of the time. The Blue Devils have had success on the offensive glass, bringing down 31.5 percent of offensive rebounds.

From long-range, Duke is hitting 36.2 percent of shots and from inside, the Blue Devils are hitting 55 percent of shots. Outside of not being able to get to the line consistently, Duke is a powerhouse offense.

However, defensively, North Carolina is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Tar Heels are holding teams to just 20.2 percent offensive rebounds on the year. North Carolina is also holding teams off the foul line. However, teams are still hitting 33.8 percent from deep and 48.4 percent from inside the arc this season.

North Carolina also won't force many turnovers, averaging just 13.3 percent on the season, which is one of the worst rates in college basketball.

On the flip side, North Carolina is shooting a 52.2 percent effective field goal percentage while knocking down 38.5 percent threes and 49.1 percent twos.

The Tar Heels also limit turnovers to 16.5 percent and hit 76 percent of foul shots.

However, Duke, just like North Carolina, likes to limit fouls. The Blue Devils have also limited teams to a 44.9 percent effective field goal percentage while allowing just 29.5 percent from three and 45.3 percent from inside the arc.

The Tar Heels could have success on the offensive glass, as they've earned 30.7 percent of offensive rebounds. Duke isn't great on the defensive glass, giving up 30 percent of offensive rebounds.

If North Carolina can keep pace offensively, I think they cover this game, at home. It's hard to take the road team in these types of matchups. Throw the analytics and numbers away and realize that North Carolina will be prepared for this game.

Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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