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Lightning Locks shares his play for Kentucky vs Alabama when looking at Saturday's college basketball slate of games.

Kentucky vs Alabama Prediction: Can the Crimson Tide Win at Home? 

We go to the SEC tonight and if this was football and we got this line it would be amazing but it's not and it's basketball where Kentucky Wildcats are the Alabama of basketball in the SEC and we see if the Crimson Tide can pull out a much-needed victory.  There is no question Kentucky is going to the tournament but Bama has a lot of huge wins but also a lot of bad losses and this is the game that you win you are in the tournament that simple. This is a Quad 1 win and Bama has a few of them but when you can beat Kentucky it goes far in the committee's eyes. 

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Kentucky vs Alabama Prediction

Kentucky looked like the best team in the country last weekend when they went into Kansas and did what few teams do and that is win but not only did they win they blew out Kansas. Keion Brooks had 27 and their superstar big man Oscar Tshiebwe had 17-14 and it was never close.

The problem is Kentucky had to scratch and claw a win over a barely 500 Vanderbilt team and before Kansas, they lost to Auburn and barely beat Mississippi St in overtime. The SEC is very top-loaded but the bottom of the league has a lot of bad teams which is why Kentucky has a great record but they have lost to Duke, ND and Auburn, and LSU when healthy so other than that Kansas win the only big win they have is over Tennessee who hasn't been that impressive recently.

Kentucky is good and a name brand but really they are a very overrated team in our opinion with a superstar and a few decent players. Kentucky wins with great shooting but dissect their schedule and look at how close games have been and you see that if Oscar is in foul trouble or has a bad day they are in trouble. The blowout of Kansas was very impressive but that one game is not changing our opinion of the body of work we have seen. Coach Calipari said this is going to be a hard game for us as all road games are in a packed house and when you are 3-3 on the road playing a team who is 10-1 at home you should be worried. 

Alabama plays up to their competition this year and down to the bad teams with losses to Georgia (inexcusable in basketball), Missouri (just as bad of a loss), and Iona who is good but come on SEC over MAAC all day.

We can say let's throw out the Auburn games but both times they were down and came back. They could have won the first one but blew it at the end and the last matchup got ugly fast. The final score looks bad but it was a two-point game with 14 minutes left and then Auburn which is the number one team right now went on a run and it doesn't help when Bama has 30 fouls and gives Auburn 31 free points.

Alabama is inconsistent, say what you want but this team has the best non-conference wins in the SEC. You beat the real #1 Zags on a neutral court by nine as a double-digit dog, Baylor by nine at home, and the same Vols that KY beat and a very good Houston team, those are wins that get you into the Madness.

Bama lives and dies with the three if they are falling it doesn't matter what the other team is doing. More importantly, they play to their level of competition and when you have one loss at home and as we mentioned that Auburn game was there at the end they blew it otherwise they are PERFECT at home.  We feel confident in trusting a team that is almost perfect at home in a must-win game versus an overrated road team who is .500 on the road and is a name brand.

Bama swept them last year so let's keep the streak going as we are going to lay the ML or -1 at DraftKings and roll with the Tide, a team we have been successful all year wagering on or against. Today we are on them, let's say it together. Roll Tide beat Big Blue.

Kentucky vs Alabama Line Movement

Kentucky vs Alabama Pick

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