Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link
Lightning Locks checks out the college basketball slate and finds some value on an under.

Nevada vs San Diego State Prediction: Value on the Under

A lot of people don't watch or get to see the Mountain West Conference but you guys are missing out because these games are actually pretty fun and if you watched Colorado St and San Diego St Friday you saw what we are talking about. Today we will go to San Diego St home of Kawhi Leonard and see what will happen with them and Nevada in a battle on CBS Sports for you later today.

 Click here for Nevada vs San Diego State Odds

Error fetching data.

Nevada vs San Diego State Prediction

We start with San Diego St, a program that has been very dangerous for years but needs to get it going this year if they want to be in the tournament. One thing you always get with San Diego St is defense. They have been known for that and they haven't disappointed this year. Check out these stats: they are fifth in the country giving up 56.9 points a game, third in the country allowing teams to shoot just over 37%, and 17th in the country allowing teams to shoot under 29% from the 3 point line.

If you can't score you can't win, that's our motto. We look at the San Diego St offense and it's just as ugly as they are 320th scoring 64 a game, 300th in field goal percentage at 41.7%, and 204th at 3-point shooting with 33.3%.

It feels like their offense is playing against their defense and the free-throwing shooting on both offense and defense is pretty bad too. The Aztecs have permitted just 58, 47, 75, 55, 42, and 49 points in its last six games (the 75 was Utah St and they actually average around 76 a game). When you hold opponents to under 60 eight times this year and under 50 four times this year you cover up your own bad offense and we feel that's going to happen again today. 

We spoke about the Aztecs. Let's look at Nevada as they aren't a hotbed of offense or defense either. First off Nevada has gone under the last four games as they have scored 66, 49, 58, and 56. They are 211th in field goal shooting at 43.5 % and 302nd at 3-point shooting at 31.3%.

All of this falls right into the San Diego St defensive play and Nevada should score in the 50's against this defense. Nevada's defense is 240th or lower in most categories so their defense isn't great but SD St has gone under in eight of their last 10 and even had a 79 point full game.

Nevada's last three games have gone under the 130 number today and with SD St being a double-digit favorite they expect a blowout so if SD St scores there 64 that means 52 for Nevada. We will give each team an extra five points and we still get 69-57 which is still under the total. If we can give a team a few extra buckets and still beat the number we feel we have to take it.

Let's take the under 130 available at the Wynn Bet as we do this write-up currently. Defense will rule in the Mountain West Conference this afternoon. If you like defense this is the game for you. Take the under 130 and let's root for them to do what they do best.

Nevada vs San Diego State Line Movement

Nevada vs San Diego State Pick

Error fetching data.

Article Author

ROI 43.4%

Need a pick for the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, or basically any other sport? Lightning Locks has you covered with a history of accurate picks for each sport.

Expert Handicappers

View all Handicappers

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.