Robert Morris vs. Oakland Prediction: Can the Golden Grizzlies Get on Track?

Ben, AKA Beat The Spread, is here with his best bet for Friday's college basketball slate. He's turning to the Robert Morris vs. Oakland matchup.
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Robert Morris vs. Oakland Prediction: Can the Golden Grizzlies Get on Track?

Smaller college basketball slates like tonight's usually mean betting on more mid-major conference games, and that's what I have for you today. The Oakland Golden Grizzlies travel to take on the Robert Morris Colonials in this Horizon League showdown tonight.

Robert Morris vs. Oakland Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Friday, February 11

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click Here for Robert Morris vs Oakland Odds

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Robert Morris vs. Oakland Line Movement

Robert Morris vs. Oakland Prediction

The Grizzlies are currently three games behind first in conference play due to a three-game losing skid against some of the top teams in the conference on their current four-game road trip. A win here tonight is imperative to the Grizzlies, and I'm sure head coach Greg Kampe will have them locked in tonight. The Colonials have had a much worse season, with only four conference wins, three of them coming against the three worst teams in the conference (besides themselves).

In the first meeting this year, Oakland stymied Robert Morris with their zone defense, holding them to just 61 points on 40% shooting. Oakland ended up winning 79-61 in a rout. The 1-3-1 zone that Oakland runs forces a lot of threes from opposing teams, and that is not the Colonial's strong suit. The Colonials shoot just 32.9% from outside the perimeter, and three's only account for 27% of the Colonials total points, which is 290th out of 358 teams. Oakland's defense is built to shut down teams just like Robert Morris that want to score inside, and if the Colonials wish to have a better chance tonight, they will have to make some outside shots.

Oakland's backcourt is impressive, but their frontcourt is equally as efficient. What they lack in shooting percentage, they make up for in other major components. Oakland is third in the conference in turnovers per possession, fourth in offensive rebounding percentage, and first in free throw to field goal rate. They take care of the ball, crash the boards, and draw a lot of fouls. They don't need to drain a bunch of threes to blow you out, which is every coach's dream. In Oakland's three-game losing streak, one area of concern has been turnovers, but those were against better teams with better defenses. Robert Morris is 9th in the conference in turnovers forced per possession, leading me to believe Oakland will be back to their usual selves turnover-wise.

One of Oakland's keys on offense is their aggressiveness and their ability to get to the line often. They rank first in the conference in free throw attempts per game and first in the conference in free throw percentage (81.2%). On the other hand, Robert Morris is tenth in the conference in free throws allowed per game. The two team members who contribute the most to this also happen to both be in the top five rated players in the conference (according to Kenpom) as well, first-ranked Jamal Cain and fifth-ranked Jalen Moore. Both average of 4.5 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. The aggressive playstyle got multiple Robert Morris players into foul trouble in the first meeting this year, including leading scorer Kahliel Spear. Robert Morris will have to play carefully on defense to avoid the same foul trouble, which is never promising when trying to win the game.

Oakland was able to play their game in the first meeting, covering the spread easily in an 18 point win. The zone troubled Robert Morris, and Oakland's aggression limited some key players for the Colonials. Oakland finds themselves in a bit of slump coming into tonight, which is the last game of their road trip. I think they come in tonight focused on an opponent they have beaten and know they can again. The spread tonight is at seven points on most books, and while I don't think it's another 18-point blowout, I think the Grizzlies can win by double digits once again to cover the number. Take the Golden Grizzlies to complete the season sweep on the Colonials.

Robert Morris vs. Oakland Pick

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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