South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Prediction: Offense will Shine Today

Ben (@WeBeatTheSpread) covers the Summit League matchup between South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas. What does Ben think is the best bet for this Saturday matinee on ESPN3?
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South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Prediction: Offense will Shine Today

Today's slate of 144 games is jam-packed with tons of action, which gives us our prime choice of games to bet. I love college basketball Saturdays because you get so many options for betting action with nearly every division one team playing.

Today, one of my favorite bets brings us to Brookings, South Dakota, where the Jackrabbits will take on the visiting St. Thomas Tommies. These two are essentially bookending the Summit League, as South Dakota State is number one at 15-0 in conference play, and St. Thomas is ahead of last by one game at 2-12 in conference play. South Dakota State is undoubtedly set up for a blowout at home today, but the total is more intriguing than the spread to me.

South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Saturday, February 19

Game Time: 3:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ESPN3

Click Here for South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Odds

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South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Total Movement

South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Prediction

South Dakota St. possesses one of the scariest offenses in division one basketball. They are ranked 10th in offensive efficiency according to Kenpom, and they have scored 80 or more points in 14 of their 15 conference games. They also play at a fast pace, averaging only 15.5 seconds per offensive possession. This is a nightmare matchup for the Tommie's defense. The Tommie's rank dead last in the country at 358th in defensive efficiency per Kenpom.

The Jackrabbits are number two overall in the country in effective field goal percentage and number one overall in three-point percentage. They should have a field day against this Tommie's defense. However, the Jackrabbits are not so efficient in the backcourt. They are 290th in division one, with 73.2 points per game allowed. They make up for it with their high-powered offense, though, so it works out for them. They have four players in the top 100 of all division one players for three-point percentage. That is a good matchup against a St. Thomas defense that has allowed opponents to shoot nearly 40% from behind the arc.

The Tommies are similar to the Jackrabbits in that they are more talented in the frontcourt than the backcourt. Even though they rank dead last in defense, they are just outside the top 100 in scoring, putting up 73.9 points per game. The Tommies score 42% of their points from outside the perimeter, exactly where the Jackrabbits struggle. They are 256th in the country in three-point defense, allowing opponents to attempt 41.8% of their field goals from behind the arc, good for 294th in the nation.

Clearly, the Tommies are out-matched today. This is the worst defense in the country on the road against one of the best offenses in the country. South Dakota State has broken 90 points multiple times this year, and against one of the worst defenses, I'm sure they can today. That leaves St. Thomas to have to put up at least 68 points, which they have done multiple times this year. Considering both teams' lack of a backcourt, the Jackrabbit's pace of play, and the Tommie's ability to make a three, this game should break 175 tomorrow, let alone 157.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies Pick

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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