Xavier vs Providence Prediction: Trust the Underdog?

Xavier vs Providence Prediction: Trust the Underdog?

We are coming off a 1-1 slate yesterday. I am back with my favorite college basketball bet of the day. I have to admit UConn winning that game last night may have been my luckiest college basketball win in the last few seasons.

We know the saying though; sometimes it’s lucky to be better than to be good. I am excited to get into tonight’s game, and we are going to head to the Big East for a matchup between the Xavier Musketeers and the Providence Friars.

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Xavier vs Providence Prediction

I want to talk about the season Providence has had because, in my opinion, the head coach of the year belongs to that man. Cooley had done a phenomenal job with a roster that is good but not great.

Providence suffered their first home loss of the season when Villanova came in and beat them in a close battle. Following that loss, Providence had a fierce comeback to force overtime and eventually outlast the Butler Bulldogs. Xavier has had a good season but would love a big road win before conference tournaments begin.

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Xavier looks like they will easily be a team who makes March madness and could be a scary matchup in the first couple of rounds. Veteran guard Paul Scruggs will be the big gun for this Xavier group along with big men Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle. Each of these teams had been expectable on the defensive end this season, and matchup very similar in most statistical categories. 

The pick I am turning to tonight is going to be to back the Xavier Musketeers with the two points. The first reason is let’s look at this line. Providence has lost this season at home just once, and it came last week to one of the best teams in all of the nation in the Villanova Wildcats. That loss shouldn’t be looked at as a negative they have been lights out at home this season. They now face an unranked Xavier team at home, and they are only -1.5?

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The line is simply off in this game, and I am going to take advantage of it. The second factor is this is going to be a public darling, and I love to fade public darlings. I get it Providence is home. They're the better team, so it makes some sense. My thoughts on that, however, are that I do not think Providence is that much better than Xavier when you really break it down. Kenpom ranks Providence as the luckiest team this season (yes, that’s a real stat).

I have watched them a lot this year, and they have made me a lot of money, but they do get some fortunate breaks that won’t last forever. The status of Al Durham also does not look good for providence tonight, and he has been their best overall player this season. I think that would be a huge hit to this lineup, who has not been forced to play much in his absence. I love this play tonight and will be backing the road team in the Xavier Musketeers to get it done for us in a close game! 

Xavier vs Providence Line Movement

Xavier vs Providence Pick

• Pick: Xavier +2 -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)