Baylor vs. Kansas Best Bet: Look for The Jayhawks to Stay Hot

Baylor vs. Kansas Best Bet: Look for The Jayhawks to Stay Hot

The Jayhawks travel to Waco, Texas tonight to take on the Baylor Bears in a heavyweight matchup between the Big 12's top two teams. This game has enormous implications for who will finish on top of the Big 12, as the teams are separated by just one conference win. Kansas was able to take care of business against Baylor at home back on February 5th in an 83-59 blowout win. Can Kansas repeat that performance, or will Baylor get revenge?

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Baylor vs. Kansas Prediction

Baylor missed LJ Cryer in the first meeting against Kansas, and they will be without him again and some. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua will join Cryer on the bench for this one after suffering a season-ending knee injury back on February 13th. This is a significant injury, as Tchatchoua was a pivotal contributor to this squad as the leading rebounder and a great defender down low. The Bears still have Flo Thamba down low, so they are not decimated in the paint, but missing Tchatchoua is still significant.

Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun were able to stymie Baylor down low in the first meeting. Kansas specializes in scoring in the paint, shooting just below 70% under the basket, good for 5th in the nation. Baylor has struggled at times defending the paint, allowing opponents to shoot 60% there, ranking 203rd in the country. The absence of Tchatchoua makes this a nightmare for Baylor, and Thamba will need to defend the paint for Baylor to have any shot today. David McCormack is one of the best offensive rebounders in the nation, and Kansas is a very efficient second-chance scoring team, so I expect the advantage in the paint to loom large for Kansas tonight.

I expect Baylor to shoot a lot of mid-range jumpers today. Kansas has good perimeter defense, driving opponents off the three-point line. Matchup-wise, this favors Kansas because Baylor shoots their worst mid-range (38%), and Kansas defends their best at mid-range (35%).

Overall, Kansas is the healthier team right now and the more well-rounded team. Baylor's losses this year are to the best teams in the conference, and Kansas is one of them. I also like getting points here because we can still win with the cover even if it's a close game that comes down to the last possession. Take Kansas with the points in what should be another masterclass in the paint for Kansas.

Baylor vs. Kansas Pick

• Pick: Kansas +3 @ -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)