Saturday's College Basketball Best Bets: The Undercover Play of the Century

Saturday's college basketball prediction and pick from handicapper John Hyslop. This is Slop's second college basketball play of the day. You know that if he's going back to college basketball, it has to be a good one.
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Saturday's College Basketball Best Bets: The Undercover Play of the Century

It's not every week where we see multiple Plays of the Century come out but that's what's happening this week people. That's crazy. The best part about this one is the time it's being played. We've got the 5:00pm ET slot which means that we are almost certain to forget we even bet this one. Then, all of the sudden out of nowhere we're going to remember we bet it and that's when things get good. There's not much better in the gambling world than forgetting you made a bet and then remembering a couple minutes into it. It's like magic but real. On top of that, this action will be on a bet that has literally no chance of losing at the time of writing. Those are fun.

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SE Missouri State Team Total Over 32.5 *First Half @ -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

We're at DraftKings for this one since FanDuel is only offering the first half total. I like that to go over but I think the better move is to just do the SE Missouri State team total. If we want to do that, we'll have to go to DK and the price really isn't bad at -105 for 32.5. I definitely think it's worth betting.

First off, SE Missouri State is being disrespected here a little as 12-point dogs. Now I don't think they'll cover that, but I do think they'll try to defend themselves a little today. If we're being honest, their offense is the only thing that will keep them in this game. Over their last three games, their effective field goal percentage is 54.3%. That's damn good.

Making shots is only half the battle here though. We want a ton of shots. I don't want to bet a team to come out hot. I want to bet a team to come out and take a ton of shots. The Redhawks will do that. This team plays at the 15th fastest pace in the country. They've dropped three straight first-half 40-burgers because of the run. You gotta love it.

Murray State will play defense but they don't normally lock up on the road. At least until the second half. They've allowed two of their last three road opponents to hit this number in the first half. Most of these teams play at a snail's pace too. When they met SE Missouri State back in December, the two teams combined for 99 points in the first half. I bet we see a similar up and down pace early before slowing down in the second half.

ROI 31%
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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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