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In the night cap, we head to Fresno State vs San Diego State for a late night best bet in college hoops.
ANALYSIS

Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction: Late Night Best Bet

The college basketball regular season is coming to an end as we head into conference tournaments. Most teams have just one or two games left, and this one has meaning for both teams.

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Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction

Fresno State is currently sixth in the conference, and if they win out, they can claim a first-round bye by surpassing UNLV if UNLV loses their last game. This would be a massive advantage since it means playing one less game in the tournament, which would help their effort to make the big dance. San Diego State has less meaning attached to this game, but if they win out and Colorado State loses their final game, then San Diego State would get an easier matchup in their first tournament game.

In the first meeting this year, San Diego State shut Fresno State down, holding them to 44 points in a 61-44 win. That game only had 55 total possessions, a season-low for both teams. That points us directly to our bet for the night.

Both these teams play at incredibly slow paces, with Fresno State actually playing the third slowest pace in the nation. Fresno State ranked bottom 50th at shots in transition, taking forever to get a shot up on offense. San Diego State plays a similar style with a slightly faster pace, but their field goal percentage is so bad that it doesn't matter much on offense. However, offense isn't the winning game plan for either of these teams.

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San Diego State is third overall in scoring defense in the nation, giving up only 57.3 points per game. Right behind them is Fresno State, who is third in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 57.8 points per game. Both teams play very tight defense and force shots late in the shot clock while also boxing out well and limiting second-chance points. This leads to a slow-paced game where both teams struggle to run up the score. It helps our case that both teams are outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency as well. Both Fresno State and San Diego State shoot below 45% from the field and also stay away from the three-point line. This has led to an over under record of 10-17 for Fresno State and 10-16 for San Diego State.

Looking at all the components of this one, it should be a slow game with many missed shots and a low amount of second-chance points. The defenses will shine for both teams tonight, per usual. They only combined for 55 possessions in the first game, and with two of the top defenses in the nation squaring up here, I don't see the second matchup going any differently. Take the under tonight.

Fresno State vs San Diego State Pick

Fresno State vs San Diego State Line Movement

Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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