Mar 6, 4:30pm | 6 min read

College Basketball Picks: Sunday's Best Bet Brings Us to the CAA

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A smaller slate today in college basketball so my attention is on one game in particular. I am focusing on a Colonial Athletic Association tournament matchup between Elon and UNC Wilmington.

ANALYSIS

College Basketball Picks: Sunday's Best Bet Brings Us to the CAA

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UNCW vs. Elon Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Sunday, March 6, 2022
Game Time: 6:00 pm ET

Click Here for UNCW vs Elon Odds

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UNCW vs. Elon Line Movement

UNC Wilmington vs. Elon Prediction

UNCW has been the story of the CAA this year as I do not believe anyone expected them to be this good. They come into the CAA tournament with a 21-8 overall record and a 15-3 record in CAA play so they have been exceptional against teams in their conference. One of those 3 losses came earlier in the season to Elon as they lost on the road by double digits.

Elon is a team that really struggles on the offensive end as they are currently ranked 244th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 283rd in offensive turnover percentage, 212th in offensive 3-point percentage, and 224th in offensive 2-point percentage. UNCW does a really good job of forcing turnovers on defense as they are ranked 74th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, so I think they will be able to make things tough for Elon on the offensive end.

Bet $10, Win $200 If Either Team Hits a Three

On the other side of the ball, UNCW is not an offensive juggernaut, but they have done a really good job of taking care of the ball. They are currently ranked 24th in the nation in lowest offensive turnover percentage. I very much expect UNCW to win the turnover battle in this game and more possessions will always lead to more points and scoring opportunities. Elon has also been really bad on defense this season as they are currently ranked 244th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 278th in defensive turnover percentage, and 353rd in defensive foul rate.

Elon's opponents have shot a lot of free throws this season and UNCW is ranked 76th in the country in foul rate drawn on offense. I expect UNCW to be able to use their size and height advantage to get to the rim for layups and foul opportunities. UNCW has also failed to cover the 1H in both meetings with Elon this season so I am going against the trend and rolling with UNC Wilmington 1H -1.5 at -110 for one of my most confident college basketball picks of the day.

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Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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