Furman vs. Chattanooga Prediction: Expect the SoCon Championship to Be A Defensive Struggle
Furman vs. Chattanooga Prediction: Expect the SoCon Championship to Be A Defensive Struggle
Three teams (Murray State, Longwood, Loyola Chicago) punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament over the weekend. Two more teams will do so tonight, one of which will be the winner of this highly anticipated matchup in the SoCon Tournament between Furman and Chattanooga. There has only been one slight upset in terms of seeding throughout the entire tournament when No. 9 seed The Citadel beat No. 8 seed ETSU. However, the rest of the tournament has been chalk, and we now get a championship between the top two seeds.
No. 1 seed Chattanooga swept the two regular-season meetings with No. 2 seed, Furman. Will they continue their dominance yet again, or will the third time be the charm for the Paladins?
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Here are our picks and predictions for the SoCon Tournament Championship between Furman and Chattanooga.
While we ended up with a championship matchup of the league’s top two seeds, both Chattanooga and Furman have struggled somewhat to get to this point. The Mocs nearly blew a 16-point lead in their quarterfinal matchup against the Citadel, while Furman rallied from 15 points down to beat Samford 71-68 in the semifinals.
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Chattanooga and Furman played two low-scoring games in the regular season, which went under the projected total both times. The Paladins covered the spread as +3.5 point underdogs in a 71-69 loss in their first meeting, as the game had a projected total of 143 points. The Mocs covered the spread as -4.5 point favorites in a 64-58 win in their second meeting, and the 122 combined points were well below the projected total of 139.5. Oddsmakers have made the total for this championship game 143 points, and we do not see a way where this game exceeds that number.
When Furman and Chattanooga meet, it's a strength vs. strength matchup as the Paladins’ league-best offense in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom) meets the Mocs’ league-best defense in the same metric. Conversely, Furman is well-balanced with the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the league and force turnovers at the second-highest rate (20.2%).
A big reason for Chattanooga’s two regular-season wins over Furman was that they kept the Paladins from burning them from deep. Furman is just 13-for-46 (28.3%) from 3-point range against Chattanooga this year, which is right in line with the 30.4% the Mocs allow opponents to shoot beyond the arc in league play all season.
Another factor that should keep this game low-scoring is that we expect the Mocs to keep the Paladins off the offensive glass, something that not many teams have been able to do. Furman ranked second in the SoCon in offensive rebounding percentage, securing 29.8% of their misses. However, Chattanooga dominated Furman on the backboards in both meetings, outrebounding them 38-25 and 37-25, respectively.
The 37-25 rebounding edge is particularly significant since Chattanooga played that game without leading rebounder Silvio De Sousa (6.7 rebs), who missed six consecutive games with an injury this year.
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While both Furman and Chattanooga rank in the top four in the SoCon in scoring, they each seemingly have the perfect foil for each other’s offensive system. The conference’s leading scorer, Malachi Smith (20.4 ppg), averaged 20.5 points in the two meetings with Furman, but the Paladins have done an excellent job in limiting the Mocs’ supporting cast.
With an NCAA Tournament berth on the line, we expect nerves to creep in and both teams to play a little tighter. However, with the game being a toss-up from a point spread perspective, we instead are happy to back the under with what seems like a bizarre projected total contrary to how both regular-season meetings played out.
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The under is 4-0 in Furman’s last four games as underdogs and is 4-1 in Chattanooga’s last five neutral site games as favorites. Look for this game to be another defensive struggle.
Furman Paladins vs. Chattanooga Mocs Pick
PICK: UNDER 143 (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)