Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington Prediction: Which Team Will be Crowned Kings of the CAA?

Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington prediction and pick for Tuesday's CAA Championship game. With a trip to March Madness on the line, which team will come out on top in the CAA Final? Ben Rajavuori gives us his pick.
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Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington Prediction: Which Team Will be Crowned Kings of the CAA?

Six more NCAA Tournament tickets will be punched tonight across the six championship games, including a matchup in the Colonial Athletic Association between the Delaware Blue Hens and UNC Wilmington Seahawks. Delaware is coming off a 13-point upset win over Towson as five-point underdogs, while UNC Wilmington is coming off a close call in a tight win over Charleston. UNC Wilmington advanced after a close call that was ruled a charge against Charleston with three seconds left when Charleston was down one, ultimately costing them the game. Will UNC Wilmington complete the season sweep and pull out another close win?

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Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington Prediction

Delaware is the best shooting team in the conference. They shot 54.7% from inside the arc and 37.2% behind the arc in conference play this year. Shooting and getting to the line was the bright spot of this Delaware team this season. The downfall of the Blue Hens was their defense. They rank 247th in the nation in points per game allowed and rank 219th in defensive efficiency on Kenpom. However, Delaware seemed to tighten up in the backcourt once the conference tournament started. They only allowed 56 points to both Drexel and Towson in their tournament games and held Towson to a season-low 34.5% from the field in the semifinal game. Delaware already had the offensive advantage in this one, but if they can pull out another defensive effort similar to their last few, this is their game to lose.

UNC Wilmington won the first two matchups this year with exceptional three-point shooting in the first meeting and forced many turnovers in the second. They shot 50% from behind the arc in the first meeting and forced 15 turnovers in the second, which is exceptionally higher than Delaware's standard. UNC Wilmington held Delaware below their scoring average in both meetings. Still, considering that UNC Wilmington doesn't have a usually dominant defense, I like Delaware's odds to be able to score the third time around. It's not very easy to beat a team three straight times, especially when the other team is playing their best basketball over their last few games.

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Delaware is hot at the perfect time. They have figured things out defensively and already have the offense to win this matchup the third time around. Frankly, UNC Wilmington didn't play very well and barely eeked out the win against Charleston on a controversial call less than 24 hours ago. On the other side, Delaware dominated a better team in Towson in a double-digit win. I have to trust the team that is playing their best down the stretch and has the better overall shooting numbers. Also, I'm not usually much of a trends person, but this is the cherry on top if trends are your sort of thing. In the last seven years in the CAA tournament, favorites with lines that fall between -2.5 and -3.5 are a perfect 18-0 straight up and 17-0-1 against the spread.

Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington Pick

Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington Line Movement

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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