Penn State vs Purdue Prediction: The First Half Play to Make

Penn State vs Purdue Prediction: The First Half Play to Make

The Big 10 quarterfinals are here, and one of four games today features the Penn State Nittany Lions squaring up against the Purdue Boilermakers. Penn State is coming off an impressive upset against Ohio State in the second round, a game in which they were down nine points halfway through the second half and rallied to win by three. Purdue took the only meeting of the year 74-67 on the road, but Penn State actually covered the ten-point spread in that game, and the line is the same tonight. Will Penn State cover again, or will Purdue put them away in a blowout?

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Penn State vs Purdue Prediction

Purdue bolsters one of the most dynamic and high-powered offenses in the nation. They have the most productive paint duo in Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Combine that with the perimeter support from Sasha Stefanovic and Jaden Ivey, and you have created a nightmare for any defense to deal with. Purdue is ranked first in offensive efficiency on Kenpom, third in field goal percentage (49.7%), and 14th in offensive rebounds per possession (34.7%). Across the floor, Penn State is 129th in offensive efficiency, 230th in field goal percentage (43.2%), and 165th in offensive rebounds per possession (28.5%).

Purdue should expect a lot of shots from the perimeter tonight. Penn State will most likely bring a lot of help down low to handle the attack from Edey and Williams, who both have a size advantage over Penn State's John Harrar. Purdue has been doing this all year. Opponents bring help down low, then Williams or Edey kick it out to one of their 40% three-point shooters.

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It's picking your poison for the other team, though, because if you don't bring help in the paint, then both Edey and Williams will have a field day under the basket. This is something that I think will give Penn State a lot of trouble early. In the last meeting, Penn State shot well above their two-point average and three-point average, while Purdue shot below their two-point and three-point average. Yet, Purdue still won easily and almost covered.

The other thing to consider today is the rest advantage. Conference tournament season is the most common time to consider rest advantages in college basketball since some teams have to play multiple games over a few days while the other team is resting up. That's the case today, as Penn State will be playing their third game in three days tonight, while Purdue has been resting for nearly a week. This means less when a team is deep and can rely on their bench, but Penn State doesn't fit that mold. Penn State doesn't have a very deep team and only relies on a few bench players, so the additional minutes may start to wear on the starters in this one.

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The reason I like the first half spread today more than the full game spread (I still think the full game line at -10 is a good bet) is simply because Purdue has been more of a first-half team throughout the year and Penn State the opposite.

Purdue is seventh in the nation in first-half scoring margin but drops to 70th in the second half. Penn State has been more of a comeback team, including both of their conference tournament games already. Penn State has been losing at halftime in both games the last two days, and I don't expect much to be different today. Frankly, if Minnesota could be winning at the half over this team just two days ago, I expect the high-powered offense from Purdue to do the same and cover.

Penn State vs Purdue Line Movement

Peen State vs Purdue Pick

Pick: Purdue First Half -6 @ -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)