Saturday's Best Bets in College Basketball: Championship Weekend Edition
Saturday's Best Bets in College Basketball: Championship Weekend Edition
Cal State Fullerton vs LBSU
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Long Beach St has been one of my favorite teams to bet on this season because I feel like they have been very undervalued by oddsmakers throughout the season, but in this matchup, I am looking to back Cal State Fullerton.
Long Beach St has had an incredible season but one thing they have really struggled with this season is starting strong in the 1H of their games. LBSU is 0-6 ATS of their last six games and then came back to win or cover in all six of those game so they are the definition of a second-half team.
Both teams are fairly even when looking at the offensive and defensive metrics, but they play very different styles. Long Beach St plays at a very fast pace as they are currently ranked seventh in the country in lowest time of possession at 15.3 seconds while Cal State Fullerton is ranked 228th in that same category at 17.9 seconds per possession.
Cal State Fullerton really wants to slow the game down and pound you inside and get to the free throw line. They are currently ranked 47th in the nation in foul rate drawn on offense and they get 22 percent of their offensive production from free throws which is good for 15th in the country.
CSF is also very good at converting these opportunities as they are 27th in the nation in free throw shooting as a team at 76.6%. Long Beach can play very sloppy at times with ill-advised 3-point shots and live ball turnovers and that's one reason they do not typically find their rhythm until the second half of games.
LBSU has been great to me this season but tonight Cal State Fullerton is in a great revenge spot and think they get off to a fast start here. With that being said, I am rolling with Cal State Fullerton 1H ML at -118 for one of my most confident college basketball picks of the night.
Cal State Fullerton vs LBSU Pick
Cal State Fullerton 1H ML -118 (Bet $118 to win $100)
New Mexico St vs Abilene Christian
Click here for New Mexico St vs Abilene Christian odds
Most people expected New Mexico St to be in this position after a very impressive conference season as they come into this championship game with a 15-4 record in WAC play and an overall record of 25-6. Abilene Christian is their surprising opponent after they notched very impressive wins over Utah Valley, SFA, and Seattle U.
New Mexico St has really excelled on defense this season as they are currently ranked 24th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage, 23rd in defensive 3-point percentage, and 38th in 2-point percentage.
On offense, they have been just as impressive as they are ranked 34th in the country in offensive 2-point percentage, 45th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 55th in foul rate drawn on offense. These will be the keys tonight as Abilene Christian gives up a ton of offensive rebounds and as we saw last night, cannot play defense without fouling.
Bet $5 on New Mexico vs Abilene Christian and win $200 if your team wins
ACU is ranked dead last (358th) in the country in defensive foul rate as they foul on 49.1% of possessions. New Mexico St is a very physical team and I think they'll be able to draw a lot of fouls and get to the free throw line.
NMSU is led by WVU and Nebraska transfer, Teddy Allen, who has been one of the best mid major players in the country this season. Allen has averaged 20/7/3 on 45% shooting and 32% from deep and is their leader on the offensive end.
I expect NMSU to be able to control this game with their defense and take advantage of ACU's aggressiveness on defense leading to more layups, fouls, and free throws for NMSU. With that being said, I am rolling with New Mexico St 1H -2.5 at -114 for one of my most confident college basketball picks of the night.
New Mexico St vs Abilene Christian Pick
- New Mexico St 1H -2.5 -114 (Bet $114 to win $100)
Article Author
Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.