UCLA vs Arizona Prediction: Which Heavyweight will win the Pac-12 Championship?

It's UCLA vs Arizona for the PAC-12 championship. Who comes out on top? Jason Radowitz answers.
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UCLA vs Arizona Prediction: Which Heavyweight will win the Pac-12 Championship?

The UCLA Bruins will take on the Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 Championship. Earlier this season, both of these teams defeated one another at their own home. But now the heavyweight matchup won't be at either home. The game will take place on a neutral court in Las Vegas.

Despite Arizona being shorthanded tonight, it still seems like the Wildcats could be a matchup problem against UCLA.

Here are our picks and predictions for the Pac-12 Finals matchup between the UCLA Bruins and the Arizona Wildcats.

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UCLA vs Arizona Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Click here for UCLA vs Arizona odds

UCLA vs Arizona Injury Report

UCLA

Out: F Mac Etienne (Knee)

Arizona

Out: G Kerr Kriisa (Ankle)

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UCLA vs Arizona Line Movement

UCLA vs Arizona Prediction

Right off the bat, we know that the UCLA Bruins aren't a major three-point shooting team. The Bruins are solid from downtown but aren't a threat because they don't shoot it at a high rate.

However, the Bruins only shoot 49.5% from inside the arc and would rather try and score inside as much as they can. From that perspective, it doesn't seem like UCLA maximizes its potential doing that.

UCLA has had success on the offensive glass, earning 31.9% offensive rebounds. Plus, the Bruins are turning the ball over just 13.5% of the time. However, UCLA won't see the line very much knowing how good Arizona is at limiting fouls and keeping teams off the charity stripe.

In case you didn't know, Arizona is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The Wildcats are allowing teams to shoot a whopping 41.6% from the field from inside the arc. That's the best rate in college basketball and that's the one area where UCLA tries to score the most.

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Then on the offensive end, the Wildcats are shooting 57.6% from inside and also shooting 35.1% from three. So not only does Arizona dominate defensively inside, but they're deadly offensively inside the arc as well. Arizona also works the glass at an extremely high rate, grabbing 34.5% offensive rebounds. On top of that, the Wildcats get to the foul line at a higher pace than UCLA does.

While the Wildcats turn the ball over a little bit more this season, at 18%, Arizona's turnover rate is still just average, It's not going to kill them as long as Arizona dominates inside the arc and limits fouling while winning the rebounding battle.

UCLA is currently holding teams to 31.9% from three and 47.1% from inside the arc, which is solid numbers but not as good at what Arizona has done this season.

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Kerr Krissa will not play in tonight's game. That might throw some bettors off, but ultimately Arizona played without him last night and still scored 1.12 points per possession while holding Colorado to .99 points per possession.

Give me Arizona as the short favorite.

UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats Pick

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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