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Iowa vs. Purdue prediction and pick from handicapper Ben Rajavuori for today's Big 10 Championship game. With the conference title on the line, expect both teams to put up points on Sunday.

Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction: Expect Points in the Big 10 Championship

The Big 10 champion will be named tonight in Indianapolis in what should be an electrifying game. This championship features the first and second-ranked offenses by efficiency on Kenpom. We will also be watching at least a few future NBA players and first-rounders at that. Purdue managed to win both regular-season meetings by multiple possessions, most recently beating Iowa on the road 83-73. So what should we expect to see today?

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Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction

Iowa has won games with their offense alone this year. They are 238th in the nation in points per game allowed with 71, yet they were able to go 12-8 in maybe the best conference in college basketball. It all starts with future first-round pick Keegan Murray. The Sophomore is averaging 23.7 points per game and 8.6 rebounds per game. He has excellent options to dump it off, though, in his brother Kris Murray and Jordan Bohannon, who are shooting 40% from behind the arc this year. This offense is dynamic and almost impossible to stop. Even the best defense in the conference, Indiana, couldn't hold them off for 40 minutes, and Iowa was able to put up 80 on them. Purdue is 275th in the nation in opponent's three-point to field goal ratio, so I expect Iowa to shoot a lot from the perimeter tonight.

Iowa also takes care of the ball. They are third overall in turnover rate on offense, which means they can maximize their field goal attempts. Iowa is not much of a turnover threat themselves, so we can expect the same when Purdue has the ball.

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Iowa simply does not have the answer for Trevion Williams or Zach Edey. Even though they only combined for 19 and 18 points in the two meetings this year, their on-floor presence presents an issue for the Iowa defense. Without a significant threat defensively in the paint for Iowa, they have to double and constantly be aware of both Williams and Edey down low. This opens up the rest of the floor for Purdue's other playmakers, which is how they were able to take both regular-season meetings. Purdue is no slouch from the perimeter either. They have four players shooting over 35% from three, and they shot just under 60% from three as a team in the last meeting. I doubt they repeat that number, but many of those looks were wide open in the previous game, so I expect Purdue to have another successful night behind the arc.

The spread also helps the total, as weird as that sounds. With the spread under one possession, we should expect a close game. Close games generally help the over because we get extra free throws at the end and quick possessions to try and cut the small lead.

Tonight's game should be back and forth with much more three-point attempts than the average game. Given the level of offense both teams bring to the table and the lack of defense from both teams, the score should run up tonight. The Iowa offense is clicking right now, but I don't trust they can slow down Purdue for 40 minutes. The over is the play.

Iowa vs. Purdue Pick

Pick: Iowa/Purdue Over 151 @ -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Iowa vs. Purdue Over/Under Movement

Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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