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The first 2 games of the NCAA March Madness Tournament are finally here, and my focus is on the 16 vs 16 seed matchup with Southland Conference Champion: Texas AM-CC vs SWAC Champion: Texas Southern. Let's get to it.
ANALYSIS

Texas Southern vs Texas AM-CC Prediction: Can We Trust the Underdog?

Texas Southern is a team who is very accustomed to being in this position as they are typically the class of the SWAC. This year is no different as TXSO blew out Alcorn St by 25 points in the SWAC championship game. Every year, Texas Southern plays a grueling non-conference schedule. They do this to prepare them for the SWAC season and the SWAC tournament. The SWAC will always be a one-bid league and Texas Southern has done a great job of taking a stronghold over it and this year this is no different.

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Texas Southern even went on the road to Florida this year and beat them in their own building by 15 points as nearly 25-point underdogs. This season, Texas Southern has won games and gotten the job done with their defensive effort. They remind me of a mid-major version of Houston with how tough they are, their tenacity on defense, and how hard they hit the glass. Texas Southern is currently ranked 13th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage, 17th in defensive 3-point%, and 21st in defensive 2-point%. On offense, they have struggled a bit as they are in the bottom 250 in most major offensive categories, but they are ranked 25th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage so they really hit the boards hard. Texas AM-CC is a team who plays at a very fast pace but is undersized in the frontcourt so I think Texas Southern may have a large advantage in the paint in this game.

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Texas AM-CC is a team out of the Southland conference who somewhat took the league by storm this season. They have not been a relevant team in the Southland over the last few years and at one point were almost in the same type of category as Chicago St with how bad they were. They completely flipped the script this year and defeated the number 1 seed Nicholls St in the Semi-finals and then took down the number 3 seed SELA in the championship to punch their ticket to the big dance.

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TAMU-CC is a team who played well this season in an underdog role. They always seemed to elevate their game and play up to their competition. They did not play a very tough non-conference schedule but went 3-0 ATS in games against Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Texas AM. The Islanders are a team who really hits the offensive glass hard. They are currently ranked 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, 18th in foul rate drawn on offense, and 65th in free throw shooting as a team. Texas Southern is currently ranked 278th in the nation in defensive foul rate as they are a very physical team who struggled to defend without fouling.

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Texas Southern vs Texas AM-CC Prediction

Texas AM-CC has played extremely well as an underdog this season and on the flip side, Texas Southern has not done particularly well as a favorite. In conference play, Texas Southern went 6-11-1 ATS in conference play during the season and were favorites in nearly all of those games. Texas Southern does much better as underdogs in a role where they have margin on the spread as a double-digit dog. We saw this last year where they covered the +26 spread easily against Michigan in the tournament but needed a large 2H comeback to defeat Mount St Mary’s as 2-point favorites. Texas AM-CC is the much better outside shooting team and I think that will be the difference in this game. Score prediction: 73-67 Texas AM CC so I like the value on Texas AM-CC +3.5/4/ML and the OVER 135 but my official pick is Texas AM-CC +4 -113.

Texas Southern vs Texas AM-CC Pick

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Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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