Arkansas vs Vermont Prediction: Are the Razorbacks on Upset Alert?
Arkansas vs Vermont Prediction: Are the Razorbacks on Upset Alert?
Vermont has been a trendy underdog pick for most people given how impressive they looked all season, but can they get it done given how easy their schedule was this season? Time to break it down.
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Arkansas vs Vermont Prediction
Arkansas is a team fresh off their Elite 8 run from last year and are primed to make another deep run in this year’s tournament. Arkansas added a lot of transfers in the off season but their most important player this season has been JD Notae.
Notae is averaging 19/4/4 on 42% shooting and 31% from three. Notae is a volume shooter and can be inefficient at times, but he will likely be the best player on the floor in this matchup. Arkansas played a gauntlet of a schedule in the SEC this year and have played extremely well since January.
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Since January 12, they are 15-3 including wins over LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, and West Virginia. They have arguably been one of the best teams in the country over the last few weeks and have peaked at the right time. Arkansas has played very well on defense this season as they are currently ranked 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 63rd in defensive effective FG%, and 47th in defensive 2-point percentage.
Their metrics are a bit skewed because they play so many top-level teams, but they are a very solid and physical defensive team. On offense, Arkansas struggles to knock down outside shots as they only shoot 30.7% from 3 as a team which is 313th in the country. Arkansas scores a majority of their points from 2-point range & from the FT line. Arkansas scores 22.5 % of their total offensive production from the FT line which is 9th in the nation, so they do a good job of drawing fouls and getting to the line. Arkansas is 23rd in the country in foul rate drawn on offense & Vermont will have their hands full in keeping Notae, Umude, Williams, & Lykes out of the paint and off the free throw line.
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Vermont is a very solid mid major program who absolutely dominated the American East this season. They lost one game in conference all season and it was a road overtime loss to rival Hartford, who was probably the second-best team in the AE down the stretch.
Vermont has the best player in the AE in Ryan Davis who averaged 17/6/1 on 59% shooting and 42% from deep, so Davis can really stretch the floor. Vermont has run efficient offense this season as they are ranked 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency, third in off effective FG%, 16th in lowest off turnover%, and 3rd in 2-point %.
On defense, Vermont does a really good job of rebounding the ball and preventing offensive rebounds. They are number one in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and only allow an offensive rebound on 18.7% of possessions. Vermont is a really good team and have proven that they belong in the big dance, but their metrics and results need to be taken with a grain of salt because of how weak the American East was as a conference this season. In their AE tournament games, they were 24, 23, and 16 point favorites and covered every game easily.
They really weren’t tested at all over the last four months as they have only lost one game since Dec 7 and were favorites in 23 straight games since their loss to Providence.
I don’t think Vermont is prepared for the physicality, quickness, and athleticism that Arkansas possesses. Vermont faced two power five teams this season against Maryland and Providence and lost both of those by 11 and 10 points. Providence was the best team they played all season and they started off the game on a 20-7 run and never looked back as they covered the 1H/FG spreads relatively easily.
I think Arkansas will start fast here and won’t look back so my plays for this game are going to be Arkansas 1H -2.5 -115 and Ark Full Game -5 +101 as I think Arkansas takes care of business here. My final score prediction would be 81-68 so I also lean to the OVER 139 as well. The official picks are ARKANSAS 1H -2.5 and FULL GAME -5, both for 1U.
Arkansas vs Vermont Line Movement
Arkansas vs Vermont Pick
- Arkansas 1H -2.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)
- Arkansas -5 (+101) (Bet $100 to win $101)
Article Author
Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.