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Purdue has been one of the top 5 teams in the nation pretty much all season, but they have struggled down the stretch. They get an interesting matchup here with Ivy League champion, Yale. Let's breakdown the game.

Purdue vs Yale Prediction: Are the Boilermakers on Upset Alert?

Purdue has been one of the best offensive teams in the country this year as they are currently ranked 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 4th in effective FG%, 13th in offensive rebounding %, 4th in 3-point %, and 12th in 2-point % so they have really dominated on that side of the ball this season. On defense, Purdue has been solid, but they have struggled to force turnovers as they are ranked 346th in the nation in defensive turnover %. They have done a really good job of defending without fouling as they are 9th in the country in lowest defensive foul rate which will be big against a Yale team who get nearly 20% of their offensive production from the free throw line.

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Purdue has been a great team all season, but they have really struggled ATS down the stretch. They are currently on an 0-10 ATS streak over their last 10 games which is very surprising for a team with such a high-powered offense. Purdue has struggled this season against teams who play solid interior and perimeter defense like Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Rutgers, etc. This may be a very good matchup for Purdue as Yale does not dooa good job of defending the paint as they allow a shooting % of 51.1% from 2-point range which is 233rd in the nation. Purdue will also have a massive height advantage in this contest, especially with star Zach Edey who stands at 7’4 295 pounds. Yale doesn’t have a single player at over 6’8 so, I think they will struggle to keep Edey, Williams, and Gillis out of the paint.

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Yale comes into this game as champions of the Ivy League after defeating Princeton as nearly 4-point underdogs to grab their automatic bid to the Big Dance. Yale has somewhat struggled on offense this season as they are currently ranked 203rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, 170th in effective FG%, 223rd in 3-point %, and 144th in 2-point % so they are an average to below average offensive team. On defense, they have been much better as they are 34th in the nation in defensive 3-point % and 103rd overall in adjusted defensive efficiency.

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Yale played a hard non-conference schedule as they faced off against Auburn, Seton Hall, Vermont, Southern Utah, St Mary’s, and Iona/Monmouth so they really challenged themselves which is likely what prepared them for success in the Ivy league tournament. With that being said, Yale struggled mightily against auburn and seton hall who are the closest comps to Purdue on their schedule. Against Auburn, they were down by 17 at halftime and ended up losing the game by 22 points. Against Seton Hall, they were down by 23 at halftime and ended up losing by a whopping 36 points. They weren’t really competitive in either game as the physicality from Auburn and Seton Hall really seemed to bother them. I think Purdue has some anger over how they have performed over the past few weeks and are going to take it out on Yale here.

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Purdue Boilermakers vs Yale Bulldogs Prediction

I really think Purdue is going to absolutely dominate the paint in this matchup. Williams and Edey are a load on the inside for the best teams in the country, let alone for a team like Yale who doesn’t have much size to compete inside. I think Purdue runs away with this game in a blowout type fashion so my strong lean for this game is going to be PURDUE 1H -8.5 -110 and full game -15.5. My final score prediction for this game would be 84-66 Purdue so I also lean to the OVER 142.5 in this game as well. My official play for this game is PURDUE 1H -8.5 -110 for 1U.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Yale Bulldogs Pick

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Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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