Texas Tech vs Montana State Prediction: Will This be a Blowout?

Texas Tech vs Montana State Prediction: Will This be a Blowout?

Texas Tech has been one of the more impressive teams all season, but they get a fairly tough draw with a Montana State squad who has looked impressive out of the Big Sky this season. Let's break down the game.

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Texas Tech vs Montana State Prediction

Texas Tech has been one of the best teams in the country this season. They have really excelled in a loaded Big 12 this year and are one of the toughest teams in the nation. They have gotten the job done this year with their tenacity on defense as they are currently ranked number one in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are also ranked 22nd in defensive effective FG%, 10th in defensive turnover%, 13th in defensive 2-point%, and 62nd in defensive 3-point % so all around they have been a great defensive team.

Where they have struggled is defending without fouling. Same as Auburn, they played in a loaded and physical conference in the Big 12 and Texas Tech comes into this game ranked 232nd in defensive foul rate so they will need to sure that up because Montana St is a team who loves to get to the free throw line. Texas Tech has been a good offensive team this season, but they have been very inconsistent at times.

They are currently ranked 65th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 74th in off effective FG%, and 21st in 2-point%. They have excelled from 2-point range but have really struggled with outside shooting as they shoot 31.4% as a team from three which is 282nd in the nation. They also struggle with taking care of the ball as they are ranked 295th in the nation in offensive turnover%. Texas Tech is led by UTEP transfer Bryson Williams who is a load on the inside. Williams was one of the best players in the Big 12 this year and should have an advantage in the paint against an undersized Montana St group.

Montana State comes into this game as champions of the Big Sky Conference, and they have had a great season as they are 27-7 to this point. Montana St has played a lot of close games this season and are not accustomed to getting blown out. In their first game of the season, they went on the road to Colorado and nearly won as they ended up losing by four in OT as a double-digit underdog.

Their worst loss of the season came against a South Dakota St team who is just a juggernaut at home and outclassed Montana St offensively. Montana St is a solid offensive team as they are ranked 32nd in offensive effective FG%, 39th in 3-point %, 57th in 2-point%, and fourth in foul rate drawn on offense.

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They get 21.9% of their offensive production from the free throw line which is 16th in the nation, and this may be how Montana St can use Texas Tech’s physicality and aggressiveness against them. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been slightly above average as they are ranked 129th in overall defensive efficiency, 98th in defensive effective FG%, and 116th in defensive 2-point%, but they have excelled in not allowing their opponents to outrebound them.

Montana St is 24th in the nation in defensive rebounding% which will be huge against a Texas Tech team who loves to hit the offensive glass. If Montana St can compete and win the rebounding battle and defend without fouling, they have a real shot to keep this game close with their outside shooting.

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Montana St has played well in an underdog role this season and at the beginning of the year, Texas Tech somewhat struggled to cover ATS vs the cupcakes on their schedule. They didn’t cover against Alabama St, North Florida, Incarnate Word, & let Grambling/Ark St hang around the number as well.

This Montana St group is very talented and think this number is a bit too high, so I have a strong lean-to MONTANA ST 1H +8.5 -109 and full game +16 -120 as I think they are capable of staying inside the number. Slight lean to the OVER 131.5 here as well as my final score prediction for this game would be 73-63 Texas Tech. My official pick for this game is MONTANA STATE +16 -112 for 1U

Texas Tech vs Montana State Line Movement

Texas Tech vs Montana State Pick

• MONTANA STATE +16 -112 (Bet $112 to win $100)