Gonzaga vs Georgia State Best Bet: Can the Panthers Put Up a Fight?

Gonzaga is the number one overall seed in the tournament and come into this matchup with a huge advantage over Georgia State. Let's break down the game to see where the edge is.
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Gonzaga vs Georgia State Best Bet: Can the Panthers Put Up a Fight?

Gonzaga comes into another NCAA tournament with another number 1 overall seed and are again one of the top teams in the nation. The Zags come into this game with the number one ranked offense in the country. They are 1st in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, 2nd in offensive effective FG%, 17th in 3-point shooting, and 2nd in the nation in offensive 2-point percentage. Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren are both very solid post players who can run the floor, offensive rebound, score in the mid-range, and knock down outside shots. Georgia State has really struggled to defend the 2 this season as they are ranked 342nd in defensive 3-point percentage so this may be an issue for the Panthers.

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On the other side of the ball, Gonzaga has been just as impressive on defense this season as they are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency, 1st overall in defensive effective FG%, 1st overall in defensive 2-point percentage, and 38th in defensive 3-point percentage. Gonzaga will also have a significant height advantage in this matchup as well. Gonzaga’s average height is nearly 3 inches taller than Georgia State’s average height and I think this gives Gonzaga a massive edge in the painted area and with the rebounding battle. Georgia State is 281st in the country in defensive rebounding percentage so the Zags may destroy them on the offensive glass. Gonzaga is also one of the fastest teams in the country as they are 4th in adjusted tempo and number 1 in the country in the lowest average time of possession at 14.5 seconds. I think Gonzaga is going to score at will in the paint and if they are knocking down outside shots with some consistency, this will be a blood bath early.

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Georgia State has been a solid team out of the Sun Belt Conference for the last few seasons and played really well in the Sun Belt tournament to clinch this NCAA tournament berth. One thing Georgia state has done well this season is hit the offensive glass. They are ranked 44th in offensive rebounding percentage and do a lot of their damage in the painted area or from the free-throw line. Georgia State has struggled to shoot the ball this season as they are ranked 344th in offensive effective FG%, 246th in 3-point%, and 351st in 2-point %. Georgia State did not play a very tough non-conference schedule and the best team they faced outside of the Sun Belt was probably Richmond who dropped 94 points on their head as Georgia State lost that game 94-78 in a shootout.

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If Richmond can drop 94 on them, then think of what Gonzaga can do. Georgia State does take fairly good care of the ball as they are 77th in the lowest offensive turnover percentage and they play at a fairly fast pace too as they are ranked 106th in the lowest time of possession at 17.1 seconds per touch. On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia State has done well with defending the paint as they are ranked 27th in defensive 2-point percentage and 19th in defensive turnover percentage. If Gonzaga isn’t making layups and can’t knock down outside shots, they may struggle against this Panthers team.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Georgia State Panthers Prediction

This is the largest spread of the 1st round by far at 23.5 points, but it has gotten steamed down from 27 points. My initial lean in this game is to Gonzaga 1H -13.5 and -22.5 but my stronger lean here is on the 1H OVER 70 at -108 I simply don’t think Georgia State can stop the Zags on offense and both teams play at a fast enough pace where there should be enough possessions to get this over even if one team is having an off-shooting game. There should also be a lot of fouls and free throws in this game with how physical both teams play and how much Gonzaga plays in the paint so my official best bet pick for this game is going to be the 1H OVER 70 at -108 for 1.5U.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Georgia State Panthers Pick

1.5 Unit Gonzaga 1H OVER 70 (-108) (Bet $108 to Win $100)

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Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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