Murray State vs. San Francisco Player Prop: Will San Francisco Have an Answer for KJ Williams?

Will San Francisco be able to stop KJ Williams? Hint, it might be worthwhile to take an under here.
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Murray State vs. San Francisco Player Prop: Will San Francisco Have an Answer for KJ Williams?

KJ Williams was a freshman and only a part-time starter for the Murray State Racers back in 2019 when Ja Morant led a fun, up-and-coming program to college basketball's biggest stage. Williams is now the star and leading scorer of a Murray State squad emerging victorious from the Ohio Valley Conference yet again. Will the San Francisco Dons have an answer for the 6-foot-10 Williams on Thursday Night?

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KJ Williams Under 21.5 Points @ -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

KJ Williams had a tremendous 2021-22 campaign. He posted a career-high 18.2 points per game on his way to winning the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year award.

But, with a scoring average of just 18.2 PPG this season, this line seems inflated. Williams scored fewer than 21.5 points in 24 of his 32 games this season, good for a 75% hit rate on this under. Despite the best year of his collegiate career, perhaps sportsbooks are showing KJ too much love.

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Williams and the Racers played an extraordinarily easy schedule, especially when taking a look at the defenses they faced this season. But, when the senior forward faced off against legitimate competition, his numbers took a dive. Here are his numbers in three games against teams qualifying for the tournament this season:

  • @ Memphis: 6/10 FG, 13 Points
  • vs. Chattanooga: 4/13 FG, 8 Points
  • @ Auburn: 4/18 FG, 12 Points

These performances made up three of the Murray State star's ten worst scoring performances this season. And with the San Francisco Dons' defense (18th best among 68 teams in the field) up next, things may get rough for Williams.

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The 6'9" Patrick Tape and 6'10" Yauhen Massalski make up San Francisco's starting frontcourt. Given the Dons' impressive size, don't expect Williams to out-muscle smaller opponents in this game the way he has for much of the season.

KJ Williams has remained below this line in 8 of 9 games against non-conference opponents and I like the Dons' chances to hold him in check and make it 9 of 10 on Thursday night.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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