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This is a very interesting matchup between two teams with very contrasting styles. USC is one of the tallest and longest teams in the nation while Miami is more of a finesse team. Let's break it down and find out where the edge is.
ANALYSIS

USC vs Miami Prediction: Can You Trust the Trojans?

This is a very interesting matchup between two teams with very contrasting styles. USC is one of the tallest and longest teams in the nation while Miami is more of a finesse team. Let's break it down and find out where the edge is.

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USC vs Miami Prediction

USC is a team that always has a ton of athleticism and length at every position. This year is no different, but they added Memphis transfer, Boogie Ellis, who has added much-needed ball handling and scoring from the point guard position. USC has been an excellent defensive team this season as they are ranked 10th in defensive effective FG%, second overall in defensive 2-point %, and 49th in overall adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the offensive side of the ball, they have struggled with inconsistency at times but one thing they do really well is hit the offensive glass. They are ranked 26th in the country in offensive rebounding % and will have a distinct height advantage at nearly every position in this matchup. PG Boogie Ellis is 6’3", 2-guard Drew Peterson is a long and lanky 6’9", Max Agbonkpolo is a guard-Forward hybrid at 6’9", and then you have Isaiah Mobly and Chevez Goodwin on the inside at 6’10" and 6’9".

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This is one of the tallest and biggest teams in the nation and I really think they got a good draw against a smaller team like Miami who plays with more finesse compared to banging on the inside. USC will have an average height advantage of nearly 3 inches across the board which is nuts for such a high-profile game like this. Miami has been a solid offensive team this year, but I really think the length and athleticism of USC is going to make things difficult for them.

Miami comes into this game with an at large bid out of the ACC who had a down year as a whole this season. Miami’s strength this year has been their offensive production as they are ranked 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 26th in effective FG%, eighth in lowest turnover%, and 27th in 2-point% so they have been really solid on that end.

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On defense however, they have really struggled as they were 319th in the nation in defensive effective FG%, 269th in defensive 3-point%, and 324th in defensive 2-point %. This could be a long day for the Hurricanes because USC is going to try and pound them inside with their height and size advantage.

Miami lacks a true inside post presence as 6’10" Sam Waardenburg is more of a perimeter player/shooter and 6’9" Anthony Walker also plays more on the perimeter compared to banging in the point on every possession. Miami played well in the middle of the season, but they struggled down the stretch and barely made the tournament. Over their last 17 games, they are 10-7 including losses to Florida St (twice), Virginia (twice), and a close loss to Notre Dame. Florida St and Virginia are similar to USC in the fact that both place an emphasis on defense first and have long and athletic wings/guards all over the court. USC is basically a more athletic and better offensive version of Florida St, so I think this is a bad matchup for Miami and it could be a long day for them.

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USC has been very hot and cold this season, but I think this is the best possible matchup they could have gotten. Miami is a smaller team who relies more on their transition game and getting to the rim on dribble drives, but USC is an elite defensive team, especially on 2-pointers.

Drew Peterson is a solid defensive guard who should be able to slow down McGusty or Miller and think Ellis can lock up 5’11" Charlie Moore. Strong lean for me in this game is USC 1H ML -116 and full game ML at -118 as I just don’t think Miami will be able to stop them inside while USC’s defense should neutralize Miami’s quickness and force them to make outside shots. My final score prediction for this game would be 79-72 so also a strong lean to the OVER 139 in this game as well. My official pick for this game is going to be USC 1H ML at -116 for 1U

USC vs Miami Line Movement

USC vs Miami Pick

Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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