Arizona vs. Wright State Prediction: Do the Raiders Have a Chance Against Top-Seeded Wildcats?

Arizona has been one of the best teams in the country this season. Let's break down how they'll stack up against the 16th seeded Wright State Raiders tonight in their first-round matchup.
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Arizona vs. Wright State Prediction: Do the Raiders Have a Chance Against Top-Seeded Wildcats?

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Arizona vs. Wright State Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:27 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: truTV

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Arizona vs. Wright State Over/Under Movement

Arizona vs. Wright State Prediction

Arizona has arguably been the best team in the country this year, and a legitimate argument can be made that they have been better than Gonzaga. Arizona has been especially impressive on offense this season as they are one of the more complete and explosive offenses in the country. They are currently ranked 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 9th in effective FG%, 16th in offensive rebounding %, 76th in 3-point shooting, and 5th in 2-point %. They do a ton of their damage in the pained area as their guards, Mathurin, Kier, and Kriisa can all get to the rim off the dribble and create for others. Kriisa has been dealing with an ankle injury though so his status may be something to monitor.

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Arizona is also a very unselfish team as they are second in the country in assist rate as they get an assist on 65.4% of their made field goals. Tubelis, Koloko, and Ballo are also anchors on the inside for Arizona. Tubelis is probably the most talented as he is a very skilled rebounder, passer, and scorer around the rim. He is shooting 59% on 2-point field goals this year and should have a field day on the inside as Wright State is a fairly undersized group. Arizona has been playing well lately but their defense has been a little subpar over their past five to six games. They gave up 80 to Stanford, 72 to Colorado, and 76 to UCLA. They will definitely need to improve in that area if they want to make a deep run in the tournament.

Their offense however has been clicking on all cylinders. They have scored at least 79 points in 11 straight games, at least 80 points in 10 of those games, and topped 90 points in 4 of those games, so they haven’t had any trouble scoring over the past month and shouldn’t have any trouble scoring here either.

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Wright State comes into this game after an impressive First 4 performance in their win over Bryant. Wright State really just outclassed them on offense and after the first few minutes of the second-half, there was really no doubt that they were going to move on. In that game, Wright State put up 93 points. Wright State shot 50% from 2-point range, 43% from 3, and 81% from the line in that game so they were very efficient in scoring at all three levels.

Where Wright State has struggled this season is on the defensive side of the ball, which is not good news for them against this explosive Arizona team. Wright State allowed Bryant to shoot 57% from 2-point range and committed 20 fouls allowing Bryant to take 23 free throws. Bryant had an off-shooting night from 3-point territory which is ultimately why they lost but the lack of post presence inside from Wright State was very evident. Wright State on the season is ranked 256th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 231st in defensive effective FG%, 263rd in defensive 2-point %, and 151st in defensive 2-point % so they have really struggled in all areas on defense. They are also an extremely undersized group as they really only have one true post player in Grant Basile who is more of a finesse player. Basile is skilled on the inside, but he doesn’t have the height or size to bang with Tubelis, Koloko, or Ballo in the paint so I expect Arizona to dominate the offensive and defensive glass.

Wright State is better than your average number 16 seed, but I still think they have no shot in this game. So where is the value? Both teams play at a fast pace, especially Arizona which is ranked 4th in the lowest average time of possession this year at 15.0 seconds. My favorite angle for this game is not going to be on a spread but on Arizona Team Totals. I think Arizona will be able to get whatever they want offensively so I am rolling with Arizona 1H Team Total OVER 42.5 at -115 and Full Game Team Total OVER 89.5 at -108 for 1U each. I may also bet a Wright State team total later as 67.5 seems a bit low for them.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Wright State Raiders Picks

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Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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