College Basketball Best Bet of the Day: Texas A&M Aggies vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
College Basketball Best Bet of the Day: Texas A&M Aggies vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Texas A&M probably should have made the NCAA tournament and they have been showing the committee what they missed out on in their first two NIT games. They took care of Alcorn State by double digits and then had another very impressive win against Oregon by double digits in a game they led from the opening tip. Texas A&M has been playing extremely well for the entire month of March and they have been getting it done on the defensive side of the ball. They are currently ranked 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 9th in defensive turnover percentage, and 3rd in steal percentage so they force a lot of live-ball turnovers which Texas A&M should be able to convert into layups and open threes in transition.
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On the offensive side of the ball, Texas A&M has gotten the job done with their physicality and their tenacity on the offensive boards. They are currently ranked 20th in offensive rebounding percentage and 48th in foul rate drawn on offense. This may be a problem for Wake Forest as the Demon Deacons are ranked 346th in defensive rebounding percentage and 262nd in defensive foul rate. I think Texas A&M will be able to dominate the offensive and defensive glass which should limit Wake Forest to one shot on offense and give the Aggies increased chances to score on fouls/layups from offensive rebounds.
Wake Forest has been a very impressive team all season, but they have struggled on the road this season as they are just 5-5 away from home and are 1-3 ATS on a neutral court with that lone win coming in overtime against a very bad Oregon State team. Wake Forest has been a very good offensive team this year thanks to Oklahoma transfer, Alondes Williams, and Indiana State transfer, Jake LaRavia. These 2 guys are impact players who can put up points in a hurry as Wake Forest is currently ranked 8th in effective FG percentage, and 3rd in the nation in 2-point percentage. While these two have had great seasons, I do think they will struggle tonight as Texas A&M has done an excellent job on defense over the past 6 weeks. Over their last 12 games, Texas A&M is 10-2 including wins over Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida x2, and double-digit wins over Georgia, Ole Miss, and Oregon.
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Of those 12 games, the Aggies were able to hold their opponents to under 70 points in 8 of them and I think that's the magic number for this Texas A&M defense tonight. If they can keep this high-powered Wake Forest offense at bay, I think they will be able to come away with a win. Another thing that scares me about Wake Forest is that their defense takes a significant hit on the road against better competition. They allowed 80 points to an average Clemson offense, 94 to an inconsistent Syracuse team, 73 to a Louisville team in shambles, 92 to Miami, and 80+ points to Charlotte and Boston College on neutral courts so they are really bad on the defensive side of the ball away from their home court, which I think will be their downfall tonight. With that being said, I am rolling with Texas A&M ML at -130 for 1U for one of my most confident college basketball picks of the night.
Texas A&M Aggies vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick
Pick: 1 unit - Texas A&M ML (-130) (Bet $130 to Win $100)
Article Author
Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.