Texas Tech vs Duke Best Bet: Is This the End of the Road for Coach K?

Texas Tech vs Duke Best Bet: Is This the End of the Road for Coach K?

This should be one of the best games of the Sweet 16. Texas Tech has been one of my favorite teams to bet on all season because of how consistent they have been. On the defensive side of the ball is where Texas Tech has made their killing. They are currently ranked number one in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, 17th in defensive effective FG%, 11th in defensive turnover%, and 11th in defensive 2-point % so they have been excellent on that side of the ball this season.

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Texas Tech vs Duke

Texas Tech also played the 15th hardest schedule in the country this year, so their defense held up against a brutal schedule in a loaded big 12 this season. The key for Texas Tech will be if they can score enough points. Their defense has anchored them the entire season, but when they have lost games, it has been due to offensive inefficiency and an inability to knock down outside shots.

In their nine losses, they failed to reach 70 points in eight of those so, I think that will be the magic number for this Red Raiders team. If they can put up at least 70 points, I see them being able to escape with a win. On the offensive side of the ball, Texas Tech is fully healthy and has all of their scoring options back. They are a very balanced offense as they have five legitimate scoring options.

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Bryson Williams is probably their best player, as the transfer from UTEP has really stepped up in big moments for them this season. Williams is big enough to body smaller guards or forwards and quick enough to dribble past centers who don’t move well laterally. Texas Tech also has a lot of size at the guard position as Warren is 6’6, McCullar is 6’6, Shannon Jr is 6’6 and Arms is 6’5. This length and size is going to make it really tough for guys like Wendell Moore and AJ Griffin to get off uncontested shots and should limit their ability to get easy looks at the rim.

Duke comes into this game after an impressive second half comeback against Michigan State where they were losing by five points down the home stretch but came back to eventually win and cover. In that game, Duke shot 63% from 2-point range and 39% from 3-point range. One of their best offensive games of the season, but it is very hard to see them having that type of success again vs a stout defense like Texas Tech.

In that game, Duke had very balanced scoring as 5 players were in double figures led by Banchero who dropped 19/7/4 on a very efficient 8-14 from the field. Banchero is a lottery pick and has been phenomenal all season and think he will be the key to Duke’s success as they usually go as he goes. Another key to Duke’s success tonight is going to be how well they shoot the ball from the outside. They are currently ranked 29th in the country in 3-point shooting as a team and if Texas Tech’s defense has a weakness, it is defending the three as they are only ranked 62nd in that category.

AJ Griffin is Duke’s main sharpshooter as he is shooting 46% from three this season and has been excellent over the second half of the year. The thing that worries me about Griffin though is that he has struggled against big, physical, and fundamental defensive teams. Against FSU he only scored eight points in a loss, against Virginia he only scored two points in a loss, and against UNC he only scored five points in their worst loss of the season. If Griffin can’t stretch the floor with his shooting ability, it may be hard for Duke to find open looks at the rim with how well Texas Tech packs the paint on defense.

With that being said, I am rolling with Texas Tech ML at -110 for 1U as one of my most confident college basketball picks of the night, as I think the Red Raiders get the job done and end Duke's season.

Texas Tech vs Duke Pick

• Texas Tech ML -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)