Friday March Madness Late Picks: UNC vs UCLA, Miami vs Iowa State

John Hyslop breaks down Friday's Sweet 16 late-game matchups. He's sharing his favorite picks for UNC vs UCLA and Miami vs Iowa State.
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Friday March Madness Late Picks: UNC vs UCLA, Miami vs Iowa State

The beauty of the late games is if they start going south, we can just go to bed. Keep in mind that we have two games so if only one is going south we can focus on the good one and pretend the bad one isn't even on. I've done that in the past (last night) and it works if executed properly. The beauty is, if you take two-plus moneylines, all you have to do is win one, and you profit so there's that too. (Kind of like the Duke game we had last night.) The point to all this is we have options here people. We've got two good games, they're on television and it's Friday night. We simply have to bet them. Lucky for us, I crunched every number that could possibly be crunched. After I did that, the bets were clear. The honestly blew my mind.

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UCLA/North Carolina Over 145 (+125) (Bet $100 to Win $125)

*Odds available at DraftKings Alt Line at time of publishing*

This is what I call a blind over. I call it that because even a blind person can see that it's going over. North Carolina is going to run, run and run some more. They played at the 32nd fastest pace in the country this season according to KenPom and they are flying so far in the tournament. It's not just about the pace though.

The hurried pace is cool but the Tar Heel offense is actually producing. Like big time. They've dropped two 90-burgers so far and one of them was against Baylor. Baylor had the 13th best defense in the country this season. UCLA is 14th in that area which is not as good. That's just how rankings work. I was given this world, I didn't make it (Tupac).

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The haters are going to say UCLA held both of their opponents in the 50s so far in the tournament and that is correct. They did. But both of those teams played so slow it's not even funny. We're talking both teams were in the 300s in pace this season. Plus, neither of the offenses were any good. It's like comparing a bb gun to a bazooka (North Carolina is the bazooka here). I think this game could get to the 150s. We only need 145.

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Miami -5 (+125) (Bet $100 to Win $125)

*Odds available at DraftKings Alt Line at time of publishing*

Two of my kids took Miami to win the whole thing in our bracket pool so the Hurricanes have been on our radar for quite some time. I didn't but they did so I can use the word "our" in this situation. We all live together. After watching this team in the first two rounds, I don't think a team in the country wants to play them right now.

First off, that was Auburn's last round. They were the 12th best team in the country this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes smashed 79-61 against them. The problem they present is there are multiple guys who can fill it up. Isaiah Wong and Kameron McGusty can go 20+ no problem. If both of them are "on", they can be a nightmare. Especially for a team that can't score.

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Iowa State is the definition of a team that can't score. They've collected two of the fakest wins we'll ever see in the NCAA Tournament. They beat LSU who just lost their coach and Wisconsin lost a star during the game. Luck runs out, people. I will say that the Cyclones' defense is good. We're talking fifth-best in the nation here. Still, that's the only reason I wouldn't take Miami -10+. I think they are going to beat the brakes off of these kids.

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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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