Friday's College Basketball Best Bet: Fresno State vs Coastal Carolina

Only one game in college basketball tonight as the season is coming to a close but there is a side tonight that I really like in this matchup between Fresno State and Coastal Carolina. Let's break it down.
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Friday's College Basketball Best Bet: Fresno State vs Coastal Carolina

Fresno State comes into this game after a very impressive and dominating win over Southern Utah where they led by double digits for pretty much the entire game. Fresno State's size and athleticism really bothered SUU in that game, and I think it will bother Coastal Carolina tonight as well.

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Fresno State vs Coastal Carolina Prediction

Fresno State has been a really good defensive team this season as they are currently ranked 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, 13th in defensive rebounding percentage, and are in the top 100 in almost every major defensive category. Fresno State also plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation and really tries to control the tempo. They are currently ranked 334th in the lowest average time of possession at 19.2 seconds per touch and are ranked 355th (4th to last) in adjusted tempo, so they are fine with playing in the halfcourt on both offense and defense.

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They will also have the best player on the court in this matchup with Orlando Robinson who has been playing very well in their last few games. He will have a much tougher matchup against Coastal Carolina compared to SUU as Coastal's best player is big man Essam Mostafa. Mostafa is a very skilled post player, but he is very undersized at his position at 6'9, and considering Robinson is more athletic and nearly 4 inches taller than Mostafa, I think Robinson will have a distinct advantage in the paint tonight and should be able to get Coastal Carolina into foul trouble.

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Both teams are very scrappy and solid defensively but the difference in this game will be on the offensive end. Coastal Carolina has really struggled this season on offense as they are ranked 195th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 307th in offensive turnover percentage, and 235th in offensive 2-point percentage. The one thing CCU does quite well on offense is crash the offensive glass as they are 45th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, but defensive rebounding is Fresno State's strength so I think Fresno will be able to neutralize CCU's ability to get second chance opportunities via offensive rebounds. Another thing that CCU struggles with is free-throw shooting. They are ranked 266th in the nation in free-throw shooting as a team.

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This should be a very physical game and that could come back to hurt Coastal Carolina down the stretch if they aren't making their free throws. On the other side of the ball, Coastal Carolina is solid defensively as they are ranked 23rd in defensive effective FG percentage and 14th in defensive 3-point percentage. Their weakness on the defensive end has been defending the paint as they are ranked 96th in defensive 2-point percentage and this is where I think Fresno State will have a lot of success. Robinson should be able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass and the attention he draws should open up the floor for his teammates to get better scoring opportunities.

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Coastal Carolina has also been more of a second-half team this season and have often started slow in games, evidenced by their lackluster 1H performances against Maryland Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast, and South Alabama. With that being said, I am rolling with Fresno State 1H ML at -132 for 1U tonight as my most confident college basketball pick of the night.

Fresno State vs Coastal Carolina Best Bet

Pick: 1 unit - Fresno State 1H ML (-132) (Bet $132 to Win $100)

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Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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