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Baylor has another very solid team this year but do not appear to be as dominant as in years past. Will they blow out Tarleton state? Let’s break it down.
ANALYSIS

Baylor vs Tarleton State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Should We Trust the Texans?

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Baylor vs Tarleton State Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Tuesday, December 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click here for Baylor vs Tarleton State odds

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Baylor vs Tarleton State Prediction

Baylor comes into this matchup with a record of 6-2 with their two losses coming to Virginia and Marquette. Their first loss of the season to Virginia was a very respectable loss, as Virginia appears to be a top-five team in the country this season, so no one is scoffing at Baylor‘s loss to the Cavaliers.

With that being said, there is cause for concern when you look at Baylor’s second loss of the season to Marquette. Baylor started off that game up 7-2 in the opening minutes, and then gave up a huge run to Marquette over the next 10+ minutes of the first half and were just never able to regain control of that game. They ended up losing to the Golden Eagles by a score of 96 to 70 in a severely lopsided matchup where Baylor was actually favored by seven points prior to the game. This matchup with Marquette really illuminated some issues with this Baylor team, specifically on the defensive end.

When Baylor won the national championship in 2020, their high-powered offense is what was always highlighted but what was consistently forgotten about was their amazing perimeter defense led by Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell was one of the best defensive players in the country and forced steals and turnovers left and right which frequently led to fast breaks in open threes for himself and his teammates.

This season, Baylor is led by star-studded freshman Keyonte George who is one of the best true freshmen in the nation and is averaging 15 points, for rebounds, and four assists in the young season to this point. While George has impressed on the offensive end, his perimeter defense along with the other Baylor guards’ perimeter defense has been lacking. They allowed 96 points to Marquette, 86 points to Virginia, and 75 points to UCLA. We are not accustomed to seeing a Baylor team this lackluster on the defensive end, which does give me cause for concern when trusting them in a game like this to cover by 20+ points.

Baylor‘s opponent in this game, Tarleton State, is a very deliberate team who uses a lot of the shot clock and likes to shorten the games with limited positions and tough defense. We saw last year that the Texans fought very hard against superior teams as they went into Michigan and Gonzaga and were in those games for a long time. They ended up only losing by single digits as nearly 20-point dogs in each of those contests. Tarleton State appears to be even better this season as they come into this game with a record of 5-3 with their only losses coming to Arizona St (by three as 12-point dogs), Drake (by seven as six-point dogs), and Wichita State (By 12 as 6=six-point dogs).

Think Tarleton State will upset Baylor?

Tarleton State is finally getting some respect from the books on the lines but I still feel they should be lined more in the 14/15 range here compared to the 19/20 range that they are currently at. Tarleton State draws the most fouls in the entire country and Baylor’s defensive foul rate is not one of their strong suits as they are currently ranked 308 in the nation in defensive foul rate. Tarleton State is a fairly average defensive group, but one thing they do exceptionally well is force turnovers. They are currently ranked sixth in the nation in defensive turnover percentage.

Baylor vs Tarleton State

Baylor has a high-powered offense but they are somewhat lackluster with the basketball as they are ranked 119th in the young season so far in offensive turnover percentage, which is their worst offensive statistical category. Tarleton State plays at an extremely slow pace in an attempt to shorten the game and limit possession against superior opponents to give themselves a chance. This strategy worked exceptionally well last year against Michigan and Gonzaga, and I think it will work again here tonight. With that being said, I am rolling with TARLETON STATE +19.5 at -115 for 1.5U as one of my most confident College Basketball Plays of the Day.

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Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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