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We are blessed with a late night Mountain West showdown between two of the best teams in the conference. Will San Diego State bounce back after an unexpected loss to Nevada, or will Boise with their fourth game in a row against the Aztecs?

San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction: Who Comes Out Atop the Mountain West?

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San Diego State vs. Boise State Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Friday, February 3, 2022
  • Start Time: 9:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FuboTV

Click here for SDSU vs. Boise State odds

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San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction

These teams are filled with many of the same veterans we saw last season when the Broncos defeated SDSU three times. The main difference this year? Darrion Trammell. SDSU added another star to pair with future NBA draft pick Matt Bradley. Typically it’s been Bradley closing out games down the stretch. The Aztecs now have a second option if Bradley struggles or gets strapped up. I wouldn’t count on a Bradley to struggle though; he scored 33% of SDSU’s points the last time these two faced off.

It’s now or never for San Diego State. They are currently tied for first place in the Mountain West with a familiar foe they historically struggle with, the Boise State Broncos. The Aztecs haven’t beaten Boise State since early 2021. If they can’t beat the Broncos tonight on their home court without star guard Marcus Shaver Jr. and wing Naje Smith, they don’t deserve the Mountain West crown.

It has yet to be confirmed if Shaver and Smith are out, and we probably won’t know until tipoff. The line tells me they will be without at least one of them. Boise isn’t a deep team at all, and you can hear the concern in Coach Rice’s voice if you watch this clip below.

He doesn’t seem too confident that his stars will be playing in San Diego tonight, or anytime in the near future. I don’t typically like fading bad news with injuries to star players like this, but missing Shaver will be too much for the Broncos to overcome. This isn’t your typical Aztecs team, they can score. Boise will struggle to keep up with Matt Bradley and Darrion Trammell offensively, not to mention SDSU’s suffocating defense at home. It will take a miracle for the Broncos to keep this one close with or without Shaver.

I love this spot for two reasons: the first is SDSU is coming off a loss to Nevada in a game they very much should and could have won. The Aztecs have been very good off a loss this season; expect the same result at home today. The second reason I love this spot is… Boise State beat SDSU three times last season. I can’t imagine Coach Dutcher losing to any team four consecutive times, he’s too good of a coach. The right adjustments will be made, and Dutch has had all offseason/this season to prepare for this one.

San Diego State is the best team in the Mountain West, but they are beatable on the road. At home, it is nearly impossible to slay the Aztecs. They currently sit at 11-1 this season at the Viejas Arena in California, and I don’t expect that record to get much worse down the stretch. The public disagrees with me; over 60% of the bets are currently on the road dog, per VSIN. We know what happens with public dogs, they bite. Stay as far away as possible from the Broncos tonight, the 5.5 points the books are giving us are too good to be true.

San Diego State vs. Boise State Pick

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Article Author


Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.

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