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The Boston College Eagles host the Virginia Cavaliers tonight for an ACC showdown. Can the Eagles stay hot at home? Handicapper Krabs is here to break down his prediction, pick, and odds ahead of tonight's Boston College vs. Virginia game.
ANALYSIS

Boston College vs. Virginia Prediction: Can the Eagles Cover the Huge Spread?

We’ve heard from all the bracketologists that this is a down year for the ACC. The NET rankings have the Mountain West rated higher than the ACC. There truly isn’t much of a talent differential from the top of the conference to the bottom. Boston College has been competitive at home this season. Can they pull off one more upset against Virginia?

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Boston College vs. Virginia Start Time, Where to Watch, Odds

  • Date: Wednesday, February 22, 2023
  • Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click here for Boston College vs. Virginia odds

Boston College vs. Virginia Prediction

Tony Bennett may have the most complete team in the ACC. We know the Cavaliers always have a stifling defense. This year it’s been the offense of Virginia that’s impressed me the most. Senior Kihei Clark has been running point at UVA for what feels like a decade. He has shown to be a responsible and smart ball handler but is having his best offensive season to date as well. Armaan Franklin and Jayden Gardner are the most talented scorers on this team, both averaging over 10 points per game. It’s rare to see UVA in the top 60 of offensive rating.

Pair that with their elite defense and top-10 turnover rate, and you’ve got one of the most consistent teams in the nation. The only issue UVA has run into is their ability to close out games, especially to poorer teams. Just look at their last two games against Notre Dame and Louisville. Although Virginia pulled out the win, their 11th in 12 tries, they only beat these two basement dwellers by a combined five points.

After barely pulling out two subpar wins, the Cavs now travel to Boston, Massachusetts, to play an Eagles team that’s been solid at home. At 8-6, Boston College has beaten solid teams on their home floor, including Clemson and Virginia Tech. Do the Eagles have one more upset in them? Considering the spread is 9.5, the Eagles don’t even have to win for us to profit; they have to keep this game within 10 points. In a game between two of the slowest teams in college basketball, that gives an advantage to the home dog to stay within the number. Slower teams create fewer possessions and chances to score; it’s not rocket science.

Quinten Post has been a star for the Eagles since returning to the lineup in December. He dropped 24 points against the Cavaliers a few weeks ago. Expect the forward from Amsterdam to find success once again tonight. At 7’0”, Post presents a unique mismatch for a smaller UVA team. Although Vander Plas will be able to keep up with Post, he doesn’t have the verticality to challenge him at the rim. If the Eagles want to win this game, they have to run the offense through Quinten Post once again. The Langford brothers are athletic enough to keep this game close. Don’t be surprised if this one goes down to the wire, and Boston College is in this game until the last possession. Home underdogs of less than 10 points against a ranked team have been a profitable system this year, and this game tonight fits right into that system.

Boston College vs. Virginia Pick

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Article Author

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Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.

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