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California Baptist faces Stephen F. Austin tonight. Can the Lancers pull off the upset? Basketball betting expert Krabs breaks down this WAC matchup.
ANALYSIS

Stephen F. Austin vs. California Baptist Prediction: Can the Lancers Pull Off the Upset?

Two teams hoping to move up the WAC standings face off in Sunday’s latest game of the night. California Baptist has struggled of late, losing four of five. SF Austin is looking to build on a huge road victory, beating Abilene Christian in overtime. Will the Lumberjacks stay hot at home, or will Taran Armstrong and the Lancers pull off the upset?

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Stephen F. Austin vs. California Baptist Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, February 26, 2023
  • Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPNU, ESPN+

Click here for California Baptist vs Stephen F. Austin odds

Stephen F. Austin vs. California Baptist Prediction

I stand by my statement from earlier in the season when I said Taran Armstrong will be an NBA player. At 6'6" Taran is a mismatch for any guard in the WAC. He's a walking 30-piece when he turns it on and goes on the offensive. Recently Taran has been struggling and is more of a pass-first option. He’s currently in the coldest stretch of his young collegiate career, shooting 0-13 from three in his last five games.

Do you know what could get the Tasmanian sharpshooter going? A great matchup against a poor three-point defense. Although SF Austin has a solid defense, they struggle to defend the three (165th at perimeter defense). It’s worth mentioning Taran’s older brother has been playing his best basketball of the season this month, mainly from deep. The Lancers have an opportunity to silence the home crowd and get hot from three tonight.

SF Austin is by far the most public college basketball betting side of the day. The Lumberjacks are bringing in over 80% of the bets and handle on the spread, per VSIN. Only 1% of the handle is recorded on the Landers to win this game tonight on DraftKings. That’s a side I want my money on. Although fading the public isn’t a guaranteed profit, it’s definitely a smart strategy; the sportsbooks aren’t open to losing money!

The public seems to be all over the home favorite in the last game on Sunday night. I feel great about betting my money on the road dog as many will be chasing their losses from the week on the Lumberjacks. I’m sure they will be in plenty of “Hail Mary” Sunday parlays on the moneyline as well.

Very rarely do you see a team with 99% of the handle on their moneyline incur zero line movement. The sportsbooks are content with being overexposed to the extremely public Lumberjacks. Stephen F. Austin, coming off a physically draining double overtime win on the road as an underdog, could very well come out flat as they welcome in the inferior Lancers. It’s hard to get up for a game against a WAC basement dweller after you pulled off an incredible upset on the road. Factor that in with the boatload of public money on the Lumberjacks, along with the poor three-point defense, and you’ve got all the ingredients for an upset. Don’t be surprised if Cal Baptist wins this game outright.

Stephen F. Austin vs. California Baptist Pick

Cal Baptist +5.5 (-115) Bet $100 to collect $186 Get the best odds at DraftKings, click here to bet

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Article Author

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Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.

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