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After Boise State’s recent loss to SJSU, their postseason hopes are on life support. Will the Broncos pull off a much-needed win tonight to keep their tournament chances alive? Krabs makes his Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction.

Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

We know how dominant Boise State is on their home floor. The Broncos have won all but one game in Boise this season. I don’t expect anything different in tonight’s matchup against a ranked Aztecs team on a six-game winning streak.

Oh, and did I mention it’s senior night for the Broncos tonight? Max Rice, who doubles as the coach's son, has been red hot at home from deep all year. Under the lights in front of his home crowd, we may see Rice explode for another 30 piece like he did against New Mexico the other night. He had 16 points against SDSU on the road in their first contest, but shot 0-5 from deep. Don’t expect Rice to replicate this result on his home floor; San Diego is a tough place to score.

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Boise State vs. San Diego State Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: February 28, 2023
  • Start Time: 9:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: CBS Sports Network

Click here for Boise State vs. San Diego State odds

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Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction

Star point guard Marcus Shaver Jr. has been inconsistent at times this season. It didn’t help that he started the year inactive coming back from injury. He also missed the first game against San Diego State when the Broncos lost by 20. Adding a healthy Shaver into the lineup the second time around will help immensely. This team really doesn’t have a secondary ball handler, and the Aztecs' press defense got the best of the Shaver-less Broncos earlier this month. Will we see a vintage Shaver performance tonight against an old rival? On his senior night, I wouldn’t bet against it; he is Boise State basketball.

Did anyone else find it strange that Boise State opened up as the favorite coming off a terrible loss? Now factor in how well the Aztecs have played on their six-game winning streak. That makes this line even fishier.

Look, I know Boise is hard to beat at home, and tonight is a must win scenario to keep their conference championship hopes alive. That’s not why the Broncos are the favorite tonight though. Every game for every player and coach is a “must-win game” in order to keep their jobs! That’s a narrative that I just don’t buy into. Boise State is the favorite tonight against the ranked Aztecs because they match up extremely well, especially with Shaver back in the lineup. This will look like an entirely new team compared to what we saw in early February.

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After opening up as a one-point favorite, the Broncos now sit at -2.5 as sharps continue to hammer the home team. 50% of bets, but 75% of handle is currently pouring in on Boise State -2.5 on Draftkings. Big bets are moving this line, and typically the larger wagers are from smarter bettors. It’s not rocket science. I want to be eating steaks with the sharps tonight, so I’m backing Boise State to take care of business against the number one team in the Mountain West.

Boise State vs. San Diego State Pick

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Article Author


Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.

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