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New Mexico takes on Colorado State tonight as the late game on Friday's college basketball slate. Will the Lobos keep their March Madness hopes alive? Basketball betting expert Krabs breaks it down.

Colorado State vs. New Mexico vs Colorado State Prediction: Will the Lobos Keep their March Madness Hopes Alive?

Two months into the season, New Mexico was viewed as the best mid-major in the country. They started the season 14-0, the last team in the nation to stay undefeated. At one point, Patino’s Lobos were a shoo-in for a March Madness auto bid. Since then, New Mexico has unfortunately lost some key games down the stretch. Their auto bid hopes are hanging on by a thread. Will the Lobos keep their tournament hopes alive tonight in Fort Collins?

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Colorado State vs. New Mexico Prediction

Colorado State has been a letdown this season, to say the least. Isaiah Stevens has great stats but has been extremely inconsistent overall, missing games for injury as well. This team definitely caught the injury bug this season and has yet to turn it around.

Oddsmakers have given them respect throughout the season, setting their lines either as weirdly short underdogs or overvalued favorites. At 11-18 ATS, it’s safe to say the Rams have not come through for bettors in 2023. I am done trying to “catch the falling knife,” betting on CSU to figure it out with a short line. At this point, the Rams aren’t good. It’s time to fade them.

Although New Mexico is the better team, I’m surprised to see the line moving in their direction. After opening up as a one-point favorite, the Lobos are now -2.5 favorites on the road tonight. I haven’t seen a line move away from Colorado State all season! This line move is extremely telling, even with the public hammering the Lobos. I am finally comfortable fading the Rams with the line moving against them.

Jaelen House has been a menace since returning from injury last week. He’s coming off a 24-piece against Fresno. House hasn’t given up on New Mexico’s postseason hopes. This is pivotal, considering many teams in this position would lose focus and give up already. Jamal Mashburn Jr. hasn’t been playing up to his potential recently, but his points prop is high tonight.

The books are expecting Mashburn to bounce back in a big way against the 300th-ranked defense in the nation. New Mexico’s 37th-ranked offense will have plenty of opportunities to run up the score and win big against a Rams team that has nothing to play for. Coach Patino has done a great job keeping his team focused on finishing the season strong. They need to continue building momentum before the Mountain West tournament starts next week.

New Mexico has one of the best backcourts in the nation. They’ll prove it tonight against a team they’ve already beaten by 20 points. This isn’t the Colorado State program we know and love from years prior; this team doesn’t play well at home. We’ve seen Isaiah Stevens melt under pressure in Fort Worth numerous times this year. We’re used to seeing the Rams pull off a handful of shocking upsets in Fort Worth. Times have changed. It’s time to hop on the “fade CSU” train, the last call before the moneyline closes at (-200).

Colorado State vs. New Mexico Pick

New Mexico ML (-145) Bet $100 to collect $168 Get the best odds at DraftKings; click here to bet

Colorado State vs. New Mexico Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Friday, March 3, 2023
  • Start Time: 11:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FS1

Click here for New Mexico vs Colorado State odds

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Article Author


Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.

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