Friday March Madness Late Picks: TCU vs. Arizona State, Montana State vs. Kansas State, FAU vs. Memphis
Friday March Madness Late Picks: TCU vs. Arizona State, Montana State vs. Kansas State, FAU vs. Memphis
Friday was one of the most boring opening days of March Madness we’ve seen in a while. Besides the first two games, almost every single game ended in a blowout or in an uninteresting fashion. Expect a much better Friday slate. This could end up being the best betting day of the year.
I've got three picks for tonight. Let's check them out.
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Friday March Madness Picks
FAU +2 (-110) (Bet $100 to collect $191) Get the best odds, available at DraftKings
Everyone and their mother is on Memphis to steamroll FAU tonight. Penny Hardaway’s Tigers enter the tournament on their best stretch of the season, beating Houston and winning the American conference tournament. 77% of bets are pouring in on Memphis to cover (per Draftkings), yet the line has moved from the 2.5 opener down to 1.5 at some books.
I don’t blame the public for slamming Memphis, Kendric Davis is an NBA first-round Draft pick and the Tigers are getting hot at the end of the season just like they did last year. It seems like the logical play, but there’s a reason the line is moving toward the Owls. This team has been disrespected by oddsmakers all year and doesn’t do anything flashy or cool, but they win. FAU only lost three games all season.
Back Johnell Davis and the Owls to take care of business and upset Memphis tonight. Even though Memphis enters the tournament red-hot, FAU has been the better team all season. After the public cashed all day yesterday, fade the most public spread of the day and take the Owls on the spread.
Montana State +8 (-110) (Bet $100 to collect $191) Get the best odds, available at DraftKings
Montana State got embarrassed last March when they entered the tournament as a trendy dog. Lead by star big man Jubrile Belo from London, the Bobcats added another stud to the rotation in 2023. RaeQuan Battle transferred in from Washington after two seasons and has been incredible for Montana State. This team has leveled up and will be hungry to open some eyes and prove they belong in the tournament.
The spread in this game opened up at 9.5 and has slowly trickled down to 7.5 at most books. This is an interesting line move, to say the least, considering 69% of bets are on Kansas State to cover the spread. This is another great spot to fade the public after they dominated yesterday’s slate.
Kansas State has been a pleasant surprise, to say the least, this season, coming out of nowhere to dominate the Big 12. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they lack a dominant big man, and will surely struggle to contain Belo in the paint tonight. You couldn’t pick a better matchup for Belo. Back the Bobcats to take care of business and give Kansas State a run for their money. Don’t be surprised if they win this one outright.
TCU -5 (-110) (Bet $100 to collect $191) Get the best odds, available at DraftKings
Don’t let the Horned Frogs get hot. With a healthy Mike Miles, this team can beat anyone. They got a tough draw in the tourney getting matched up against Arizona State after they dropped 100 points in the play-in game. They’ll have to beat Gonzaga in the Round of 32 to advance any further (a brutal draw), but let’s focus on their first-round matchup.
The public is slamming Arizona State with bets, yet the line has shifted from -4.5 to -5.5. I’m expecting TCU to come out hot and put it on the Sun Devils. The Frogs' backcourt should dominate against ASU’s offense-first guards. Arizona State couldn’t guard a parked car.
Mikes Miles and Damion Baugh will get whatever they want tonight, at the basket and from deep. Miles is by far the best player on the floor in this contest. Even without Eddie Lampkin Jr., TCU doesn’t have to worry about a dominant big to defend on ASU, and Jakobe Coles has honestly played better in the paint for the Frogs since Lampkin’s absence. TCU win this game by 10+ points.
Article Author
Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.