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Handicapper WeBeatTheSpread is here with a March Madness pick between Providence vs. Kentucky. Come read his Providence vs. Kentucky prediction.

Providence vs. Kentucky Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds for Round of 64

Providence will face Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on March 17th as an 11 seed. The six-eleven matchups can be tricky, and the spread says Kentucky should advance as 4.5-point favorites. One of the biggest storylines entering this game is Bryce Hopkins playing his first game against his former team, the Kentucky Wildcats. Can Ed Cooley and the Friars pull off the upset?

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Let's break my pick down.

Providence vs. Kentucky Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
  • Start Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: Paramount+

Click here for Providence vs. Kentucky

Providence vs. Kentucky Prediction

Despite recent struggles, Providence has had one of its best offensive seasons ever under Ed Cooley. The Friars thrive on getting into the paint and drawing contact, which resulted in them leading the Big East in free-throw rate this season. Providence's recent form, however, is a cause for concern, as they have lost four of their last five games, with the only win coming against Georgetown.

The Friars' defense has also been an issue as of late. In their recent games, they allowed 1.3 points per possession due to shoddy rotations and allowing offensive rebounds. Despite these struggles, Providence is a pretty good rebounding team, which should keep second-chance points in check, and keeping Kentucky off the offensive glass is the key to beating them.

On the other hand, Kentucky has been an incredibly unpredictable team this season. They have had some impressive wins over teams that qualified for the NCAA Tournament, but they have also suffered losses to weaker teams like Georgia and South Carolina. Kentucky had a bad outing in the SEC Tournament, losing in the first round to Vanderbilt.

Kentucky's biggest strength is their offensive rebounding, which ranks second in the nation. This is thanks to Oscar Tshiebwe, who has the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country. Although Tshiebwe is likely too much for Providence on the interior, the Friars have the talent on the perimeter to challenge Kentucky in space.

Despite a majority of people backing Kentucky in this game, I like Providence to cover the spread in this game. If they can limit their fouls and make shots from the line, they could keep this game close. Additionally, the Friars' offense could give Kentucky some trouble, especially if they are hitting their shots from the outside with Bryce Hopkins and Noah Locke. One of my favorite upsets in the bracket is Providence, so I will gladly take some points to cover a loss if they keep it close.

Providence vs. Kentucky Pick

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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