Pacquiao vs. Ugas Prediction: Don’t Sleep on a Shocking Ugas Upset
Just a week or two ago this fight was not even on anyone’s mind. Manny Pacquiao, two years removed from his upset win over Keith Thurmond, was scheduled to take on Erol Spence Jr. Spence Jr., for reference, is the No. 6 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Spence is unbeaten and was favored at -200 against Pacquiao.
But, Erol Spence Jr. was forced to withdraw from the fight at the last second with an eye injury. So, in steps Yordenis Ugas to fill the void left by Erol Spence withdrawing and save the weekend ahead.
Manny Pacquiao is, understandably, a massive favorite, sitting at -345 just a few days before the fight. But, beware of backing Pacquiao when he’s battling competition seen to be below him, he’s shown a tendency to box to their level.
What do we expect from this weekend? My Pacquiao vs. Ugas prediction breaks it all down.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas Prediction
It would be unwise to sleep on Manny Pacquiao this weekend just because he’s old. He’s shown recently that he can hang with the best boxers in the world, despite being in his 40s.
Against Keith Thurmond, it was clear early on that Pacquiao was the better boxer. He took the fight to Thurmond, punished him with volume punches and even put him on the mat in round one. Eventually, Thurmond settled and won later rounds, but the skill of Pacquiao was just too much early.
If you look at that fight in a vacuum he beat Thurman, one of the best boxers in the world, and should handle Yordenis Ugas easily. But his past losses tell a different story.
Since 2012, Manny Pacquiao has lost four of his last 12 fights and he was a massive favorite in three of the four. The lone exception came against Floyd Mayweather Jr.
In Pacquiao’s loss to Juan Manuel Marquez, he came in at -280 and ended up getting knocked out in the sixth. In his controversial split decision loss to Timothy Bradley, Pacquiao was a -265 favorite. Then, in his most recent loss to Jeff Horn his odds were set at -900.
I think this weekend’s fight presents a unique opportunity for Pacquiao to slip up again and lost to Ugas.
For starters, he’s facing Ugas on short notice. He had almost no time to prepare for him and will be going in without a full head of knowledge on his opponent.
I also don’t like how he’s talking leading up to the fight. Pacquiao has done interviews already talking about how he’s fighting Erol Spence Jr. or Terence Crawford following this fight. He seems to be assuming he’s going to win against Yordenis Ugas.
But Ugas, while not a top-tier fighter, is a champion in his own right. The 35-year old Cuban’s only loss in the past five years is to Shawn Porter, one of the best fighters in the world, and came via split decision.
There is no value taking Pacquiao at such a massive number. So, I’m riding with the underdog here. Not a massive bet. But, at +300, the value is there.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas Pick
1u – Yordenis Ugas ML @ +300