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MMA analyst Christian Broughton gives his breakdown and prediction for the eagerly awaited showdown between former UFC Welterweight Champion, Tyron Woodley, and the YouTube star and 3-0 boxer, Jake Paul.

Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley Prediction

(1u) Jake Paul via Decision @ +1200 (to Return 13 Units)

Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley - click to see the latest odds

Main Event - Cruiserweight Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11 p.m. EST.

  • Woodley hasn’t been finished by strikes since he fought Nate Marquardt back in 2012, and even that was brought on by a combination of punches and elbows .

A friend of mine summed up this fight best: “Jake Paul has gone from fighting against guys who’ve never boxed (Ali Eson Gib and Nate Robinson), to a guy who can’t box (Ben Askren), and now to a guy that won’t box (Tyron Woodley)”. And he couldn’t have put it any better.

Tyron Woodley departed the UFC after coming out on the losing end of a wild swinging match with skilled and durable brawler, Vicente Luque, back in March. That was the first time we had seen Woodley let his hands go since he KO’ed Robbie Lawler to win the UFC Welterweight Championship back in mid-2016. It has to be said, him sparingly throwing strikes for a period of time, was in-part due to his calculated and evasive style, but towards the end of his UFC run, it just looked as though he was almost afraid to throw more than one punch at a time. You can go back and watch his fights against Usman, Burns, or Covington, and you will hear his head coach, Din Thomas, asking, practically pleading, with him to throw combinations, just as they had practiced in the gym. Yet, minute-after-minute, and round-after-round, both the fans and Din Thomas, were left disappointed.

It’s strange, because although Woodley was knocked half unconscious before getting submitted by Luque, it didn’t lead me to believe he has a bad chin, he simply got a little overzealous and paid for it, which happens a lot in combat sports. As for his reluctancy to throw strikes, well, that too might also point to him not being able to withstand the damage anymore, but that could also be due to a fear of gassing out, or being taken down and forced to grapple (the latter of which, obviously is something which won’t be a factor in boxing). Ultimately, whether he fatigues or lacks durability, it isn’t great for his chances, but considering I feel like his chin might still be there, that should serve him well enough against Jake Paul, at least to drag the fight late.

Love him or hate him, Jake Paul is due some credit for what he’s done so far in his short boxing career. You can almost disregard his first two fights, but some credit has at least got to be given for the fact that he’s won them all decisively via KO/TKO. I predicted him to beat Ben Askren, but I was stunned to see how it played out. Askren had always demonstrated a solid chin in his MMA career, and Paul dispatched of him emphatically within the opening round.

As far as the betting line goes, -190 on Paul feels about right, and I would make the case he could be even a bit wider of a favorite. At 24 years old, he is 15 years Woodley’s junior, and although that doesn’t always translate into something meaningful, we are seeing the rapid developments he is making, which is in large part due to his youth. Paul’s speed and technique is slick for someone with a limited time in the sport, and although I see Woodley as a capable boxer, I’m not sure he’ll be able to find or force the openings that he’ll need to get on offense with regularity.

All in all, I expect Paul to push the action and have Woodley on the back foot for the majority of the fight. I can see Woodley reverting to his trusted style of circling the cage (or in this case, ring) with his right hand cocked, ready, and waiting to explode forward with his patented overhand right. And, much like his final few UFC fights, I see him struggling to find the openings to do so. This should leave him as a sitting target to get out-volumed by the quicker and more boxing-savvy, Paul.

The over/under for the fight is currently set at 3.5 rounds, and although I like the over at plus-money, I see more value on Paul’s decision prop at +1200. It seems like there’s a lot of recency-bias about Paul’s finishing ability, given his first 3 pro bouts have all ended in quick fashion. And, although I know he has power, I’m just not entirely convinced he can go out and put away Woodley quite as decisively. I’m taking Jake Paul to get the decision, 8 x 3 minute rounds seems like a long time to watch Woodley get out-classed for, but at the back end of his UFC stint, he was doing that in basically every fight.

Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley Odds

Jake Paul-190
Tyron Woodley+162

Click here to see the full odds list for Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley.

Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley Date, Start Time & How To Watch

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley / Paul vs. Woodley / #PaulVsWoodley / #PaulWoodley

Location & Venue: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio, United States

Date: Sunday, August 29th, 2021

Start time: 8 p.m. ET.

How to watch: ShowTime PPV

Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley Full Fight Card Predictions

Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley Main Event Prediction:

Cruiserweight: Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley – Paul via Decision

Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley Undercard Predictions:

(W) Featherweight: Amanda Serrano vs. Yamileth Mercado – Serrano via KO/TKO or DQ

Light Heavyweight: Tommy Fury vs. Anthony Taylor – Fury via KO/TKO or DQ

Heavyweight: Daniel Dubois vs. Joe Cusumano – Dubois via KO/TKO or DQ

Super Lightweight: Montana Love vs. Ivan Baranchyk – Baranchik via Decision

Middleweight: Charles Conwell vs. Lucas Brian Ariel Bastida – Conwell via KO/TKO or DQ

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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