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MMA expert and handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Kattar vs. Chikadze.
ANALYSIS

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Kattar vs. Chikadze Picks, Parlay, and Best Bets

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

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UFC Fight Night Main Event

The main event for UFC on ESPN 32 features a fun featherweight affair between Calvin Kattar (+205) and Giga Chikadze (-245).

Click Here for Kattar vs. Chikadze Odds

Even though I believe that this is a dangerous fight to bet, I don't really have an issue with the Georgian fighter being favored in this spot. Kattar, despite being the more experienced MMA competitor, carries what I suspect will be stylistic liabilities this Saturday.

Should Kattar bring in his usual high guard and boxing-centric stylings, then do not be surprised to see Chikadze eat him up with kicks (especially from the southpaw stance). That said, if Kattar can survive the initial storms, then no one should be shocked to see Kattar stage a comeback by the end of the third frame.

In fact, if you're looking to take a flier on the underdog from New England, then I suggest keeping an eye on the live lines this Saturday – particularly if Kattar survives big storms in rounds one or two. But if you're a believer who is looking to back Chikadze at the betting window, then proceed with caution as I suspect that this hype train will be caught speeding sometime in the near future.

Prop Bet

Viacheslav Borshcev vs. Dakota Bush Over 2.5 rounds (+115)

Click Here for Borshcev vs. Bush Odds

Although a lot of betting spots have been blown out of the water from market inflation to COVID cancellations, I still find myself excited for Viacheslav Borshchev versus Dakota Bush.

I initially had an interest in backing the American underdog in this matchup given Bush's on-paper grappling edge and the fact that this bout will take place in the smaller octagon. However, upon closer viewing, I suspect that this could be a much more well-rounded affair than the initial "striker vs. grappler" feels I was getting.

Even though I can see Bush having a big round one, I've liked what I've seen from Borshchev when it comes to cardio, urgency, and his overall defensive process. I also suspect that the Russian fighter has gotten plenty of grappling looks at this home gym of Team Alpha Male.

For that reason, I picked Borshchev to edge out this win via decision and kicked for coverage by playing a plus-money over.

UFC Fight Night Parlay (+105)

Katlyn Chookagian (-180) + Brian Kelleher (-305)

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk pairing that could produce a solid plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with Katlyn Chookagian, who finds herself in a rematch with Jennifer Maia.

In their first fight, we basically saw Chookagian get ahead via her point-fighting ways, as Maia's grappling efforts were too little, too late. I don't think that this matchup will carry a different dynamic, but I do believe that Chookagian is the more improved fighter.

From Chookagian's improved wrestling and scrambly urgency to the fact that she is much better about sitting down on the occasional punch, I have a hard time seeing this latest iteration of the American falter to Maia's stick-and-move stylings (where she can be a bit counter-happy and high on her toes for my liking).

For my second leg, I decided to back Brian Kelleher, who meets short-notice replacement, Kevin Croom.

Even though Croom has come through in a similar spot before, I doubt that he can replicate the performance from his UFC debut.

If Croom had a full camp, then perhaps I would be a bit more open to the possibility of the larger man wearing out a natural bantamweight. But considering that Croom tired after being out-wrestled by Alex Caceres, then I suspect that Kelleher will have multiple paths to victory, whether it be by a controlling decision or an opportunistic finish.

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author

Boxing/MMA

MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.

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