UFC 270 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane and More

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton breakdowns his best bets for this weekend’s highly-anticipated UFC PPV event, UFC 270: N’Gannou vs. Gane
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UFC 270 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane and More

Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane Prediction

Francis N'Gannou vs. Ciryl Gane

Main Event - UFC Heavyweight (265lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:30 a.m. EST.

  • All 3 of Francis N’Gannou’s defeats have come by way of decision (per Tapology.com).
  • Ciryl Gane ranks 3rd all-time in the UFC heavyweight division for longest average fight time (15:06) (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).
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This fight is the embodiment of the phrase “an unstoppable force meets an immovable object”. It really is a comic book story come to life. On one side, we’ve got Francis “The Predator” N’Gannou, who is perhaps the hardest hitter on planet Earth. And on the other, Ciryl Gane, his former training partner, who’s trailblazed his way to this UFC title shot, undefeated, and showing technical skills that haven’t really been seen before in heavyweight MMA.

I could get further into the fascinating underlying stories surrounding this one (i.e., N’Gannou’s contract dispute with the UFC), but I’m sure many are bored to death with hearing about it already… so I’ll spare us all the pain of going over it again. 

From a technical standpoint, Gane is the quicker and more well-rounded fighter. His striking is crisp, risk-averse, and his fight IQ is off the charts. He’s faced practically no adversity in his MMA career to this point, and if he’s able to continue this trend on Saturday night, he’ll almost certainly get his hand raised and a big shiny belt put around his waist. The only thing standing in the way of that, is arguably the most frightening individual to ever put on a pair of leather gloves.

N’Gannou his ungodly power, and his ability to go from zero-to-one hundred in terms of aggression, is like nothing we’ve ever seen. When he bowls forward and lets his hands fly, it stops his opponents in their tracks, waiting to be knocked into another dimension before their fight-or-flight response can even kick in. What makes N’Gannou even more terrifying, is the rapid advancements we’ve seen from him, combined with his sheer size and athleticism.

For me, I see this fight playing out with two of the most intense couple rounds we’ve ever witnessed. Both fighters springing around on the balls of their feet, with N’Gannou predominantly ready to lunge forward, and Gane happy to work off his back foot and counter.  With the kind of power N’Gannou yields, he’ll always be live to score the KO, but with Gane’s unbelievable speed and ability to maintain range and out-work his opposition, I see N’Gannou having difficulty finding or forcing the opening to crash forward.

As time passes and the fight goes beyond the opening 10 minutes, I expect N’Gannou to fatigue slightly and lose a little bit of his explosiveness, which will in turn, allow Gane to get more on offense and begin to land at greater volume. Wrestling should largely be a non-factor in this one due to each guy having a preference to strike, but should it hit the mat, look for Gane to be the instigator, particularly if it’s later in the fight.

I’m unsure if Gane gets the finish here, as he’s often happy to coast to lopsided decision victories, but should there be a major cardio disparity, or we see newfound aggression from him, then a late stoppage win could definitely be on the cards.

As for how I’m playing the fight, I will be looking to the props on this one for some added value. Gane’s moneyline was holding nicely at around -110 for months up until this past week, where it’s now moved into the -150 range (that’s a 7.6% shift in implied probably), which is a fairly sizable move for a fight of this magnitude, especially given how long the line held for initially. At where it sits now, I’m certainly less bullish on it, and for that reason, I’m instead taking Gane’s “to win in round 4, 5, or by decision” prop. He has the potentially to catch an overzealous N’Gannou early, but he’s not historically a fast finisher, nor a one-shot knockout artist, so I see the majority of his wins coming in the championship rounds or beyond, thus making this the better value play.

Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane Pick

  • Bet of the Card: (2u) Ciryl Gane to Win in Round 4, 5, or by Decision @ +240 (to Return 6.8 Units) 

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo 3

Co-Main Event – UFC Flyweight (125lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:45 p.m. EST.

  • Their first fight ended in a majority draw, but almost half the media scored the fight as a win for Figueiredo, meaning that they could conceivably be tied 1-1 heading into this weekend’s trilogy bout (per MMADecisions.com).
  • Deiveson Figueiredo is 3-0 as an underdog in the UFC, and he’s never lost consecutive fights in his career (per Tapology.com). 

In hindsight, Brandon Moreno was unequivocally disrespected in his first 2 bouts against Figueiredo. In their initial meeting (which ended as a draw), he closed around +250 to +275, and in their rematch (which he won inside the distance), he closed at +150 to +194 (per BetsFightOdds.com). And although I favored him to make the first fight scrappy, and for him to win the second as a decent sized ‘dog, I feel like there’s just a little bit too much recency bias going on, and we’re now seeing that with him sitting as a near 2-to-1 favorite.

Yes, Deiveson Figueiredo is the older and less improving fighter (34 vs. 28), and yes, he did look seriously out of sorts in their last encounter, but let’s not forget the kind of guy we’re dealing with here. Figueiredo is an absolute monster when he’s on his game, he’s fast, powerful, great everywhere, and he holds up in a fire-fight. I can actually almost make all the same points about Moreno, except instead of power, he has a slight edge in cardio.

Don’t get me wrong, I understand why Moreno is favored, but him being this big of a favorite, just appears to be a wild swing in public perception, which stems almost entirely from how their last fight played out.

Moreno will of course be riding the momentum into this one, but Figueiredo is a seriously dangerous man, and one who I feel is being overlooked here as the moderately sized underdog. I’d have this lined closer towards a pick’em, so for that reason, I do see Figueiredo as the side here, and I’m betting him on principle.

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Pick

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Silvana Gomez Juarez vs Vanessa Demopoulos Prediction

Silvana Gómez Juárez vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

Early Preliminary Card - Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:15 p.m. EST.

  • 4 of Vanessa Demopoulos’ 6 wins have been finishes (1 KO/TKO, 3 Submissions) (per Sherdog.com).

Vanessa Demopoulos is a fairly uninspiring fighter, but I do see this as a favorable stylistic matchup for her. Silvana Gomez Juarez made her UFC debut in October of last year, where she was promptly out-grappled and submitted in the first round by Lupita Godinez. It was pure domination for Godinez, and although I rate her more highly than Demopoulos, I saw enough deficiencies in Juarez’s grappling to conclude that Demopoulos can also find her way to a finish on mat in this fight.

I see Juarez controlling the striking whilst the fight remains standing, but with Demopoulos being the fighter pushing forward, I expect her to tie up Juarez and take her down. From there, she can smother her from top control and work for a submission finish.

I don’t hate taking a shot here on Demopoulos’ moneyline at a -135. But, given that for her to win this fight decisively, she’ll likely need to be in a dominant grappling position for long periods, meaning she should have decent opportunities to get the stoppage, thus making her inside the distance prop a better play than taking her straight.

Silvana Gomez Juarez vs Vanessa Demopoulos Pick

UFC 270 Odds, Where to Watch, Date

Event: UFC 270: NGannou vs. Gane / UFC 270: Moreno vs. Figueiredo 3 / #UFC270

Location & Venue: Honda Center, Anaheim, California, United States

Date: Saturday, January 22nd, 2022

Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 8 p.m. EST, Early Prelims: 6 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, Early Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC 270: Francis N'Gannou vs. Ciryl Gane

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UFC 270: NGannou vs. Gane Full Fight Card Predictions:

UFC 270: NGannou vs. Gane Main Event Prediction:

Heavyweight (265lbs): Francis N'Gannou vs. Ciryl Gane – Gane via Decision

UFC 270: NGannou vs. Gane Main Card Predictions:

Flyweight (125lbs): Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – Figueiredo via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Michel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho – Pereira via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov – Nurmagomedov via Decision

Middleweight (185lbs): Rodolfo Vieira vs. Wellington Turman – Vieira via Submission

UFC 270: NGannou vs. Gane Prelim Card Predictions:

Featherweight (145lbs): Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Jourdain – Topuria via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry – Barcelos via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles – Giles via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez – Maddalena via KO/TKO

UFC 270: NGannou vs. Gane Early Prelim Card Predictions:

Bantamweight (135lbs): Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira – Gravely via Decision

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Silvana Gómez Juárez vs. Vanessa Demopoulos – Demopoulos via Submission

Lightweight (155lbs): Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdéz – Frevola via Submission

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius – Hansen via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

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insightpicks

A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.

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