UFC 270 Preview and Predictions: Backing the Champ in the Main Event

Dan Tom shares his favorite plays from UFC 270 and how to best monetize the event.
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UFC 270 Preview and Predictions: Backing the Champ in the Main Event

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at OddsChecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards. 

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Francis Ngannou (+115) vs. Ciryl Gane (-145)

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The main event for UFC 270 features a massive heavyweight title fight between Francis Ngannou (+115) and Ciryl Gane (-145).

Although I believe there's value in a sitting champion being flipped to underdog odds, betting on heavyweight MMA can be bad for your health. That said, I do like Ngannou and the game plan his team has put together for Gane.

For that reason, I'm officially picking Ngannou to use smart pressure and well-placed counters to knock Gane out in round two. However, if you like the Gane side of things, then I suggest considering the over 2.5 rounds (-105) for a discounted price tag given that prolonging the fight is his clear path to victory. 

Michael Morales-Trevin Giles "under 2.5 rounds" at +150 (Bet $100 to win $150)

Although I'm officially picking the more experienced underdog in Trevin Giles to tax newcomer Michael Morales, you'll be hard-pressed to find a plus number next to the American's name, as this fight has pretty much been bet to pick'em odds. 

For that reason, I ended up taking a plus-money angle that was seemingly staring me in the face. 

Basically, in almost 30-combined fights, these two men have only seen the scored cards five times, collectively. Couple that with the fact that this will be Giles' first time down at welterweight, and I can't help but take a shot on an under that seems too good to be true.

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UFC 270 Parlay

  • Jack Della Maddelana (-180)
  • Raoni Barcelos (-520)
  • Tony Gravely (-250)

+114 (Bet $100 to win $114)

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce a solid plus number on the payout. 

For my first leg, I elected to with Jack Della Maddalena, who faces short-notice replacement, Pete Rodriguez.

Although I usually look to fade products from Dana White's Contender Series, Della Maddalena was one of the few fighters who earned a high grade from me due to his technical savvy. Rodriguez could eventually be a solid action fighter himself, but he's way too inexperienced to be rushed into this sort of spot.

With that in mind, I also sprinkled on Della Maddalena to finish in rounds two (+400) and three (+900) given his aggression and Rodriguez's lack of experience past the first frame. 

For my second leg, I decided to take a shot on Raoni Barcelos, who faces Victory Henry.

Henry is a talented submission grappler under Josh Barnett, but I ultimately believe that he'll be outmatched by the better striker and wrestler in Barcelos. The Brazilian is a big favorite on the board, so I also sprinkled on him to win by decision at +200 since Henry is an experienced regional vet whose yet to be stopped or submitted. 

Lastly, I ended up letting Tony Gravely into the parlay party, as he welcomes Saimon Oliveira to the UFC.

Despite Gravely being the least trustworthy leg on this list (as I'll likely be looking to fade him in the future), this looks to be a test that the American typically passes. Oliveira's muay Thai swagger may resemble the character, Paco, from the movie Bloodsport, but he ultimately spins and meanders too much for me to pick him against a heavy-hitting wrestler like Gravely. 

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

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MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.

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