UFC Fight Night Poster Hermansson vs Strickland

Feb 3, 8:52am | 15 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Hermansson vs. Strickland

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MMA handicapper Christian Broughton kicked off 2022 in style, bring home a January ROI of 53.6%. Looking to continue his winning ways, he sees his sight on this weekend’s card, UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland.

ANALYSIS

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris Prediction

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris

Main Card - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.

Carlston Harris has only been finished once in his 21-fight MMA career (per Tapology.com).

Shavkat Rakhmonov is garnering quite a bit of attention from fans following his first two UFC fights, both of which he won via submission. He has an all-action fighting style and a shiny undefeated 14-0 record, with all his wins coming inside the distance (7 KO/TKO, 7 Submissions), so it’s easy to see what’s causing the appeal. That said, up until this point, he hasn’t exactly taken on a fighter of Carlston Harris’ level. You can make the case that Rakhmonov’s wins over Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira and Michel Prazeres were good, but Oliveira has been anything but consistent and resilient over the past few years, and Prazeres was way past his best, and only a month shy of turning 40 when they squared off.

I’m not here to say that Rakhmonov isn’t the real deal, but before I can believe, I need to watch him face increasingly better opposition, and prove that he’s capable of winning drawn-out fights, against fighters who aren’t easy to put away, like Carlston Harris. Harris won’t be completely out of his depth on the feet, and on the ground, you could make the case that he’s actually the better submission grappler, thus making it interesting to see how Rakhmonov is going to deal with the challenge. Harris isn’t easy to put away on the feet, and he’s never been submitted, so I feel like we’re really going to see Rakhmonov tested, especially if he intends on getting yet another stoppage victory.

I could make a case here for betting Carlston Harris’ moneyline at +200 on principle, or the Fight Goes the Distance prop at +230, but I actually prefer taking Rakhmonov’s to win by KO/TKO, Submission, or DQ – NO prop at -115 (available at DraftKings). This means that I hoping for any outcome other than Rakhmonov winning inside the distance.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris Pick

Bet of the Card: (1.5u) Shavkat Rakhmonov [NOT] to Win by Any Knockout, Submission or DQ @ -115 (to Return 2.804 Units)

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Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano Prediction

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano

Preliminary Card - Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:20 p.m. EST.

Hakeem Dawodu has the 4th best striking differential (2.33) amongst active fighters who’ve fought in the UFC featherweight division, only behind Conor McGregor (2.51), Max Holloway (2.83), and Alexander Volkanovski (2.88) (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).

Mike Trizano is one of those trustworthy fighters where you know what you’re going to get. He’s got forward pressure, tight hands, and is a capable grappler against most of the division. He’s got decent cardio and durability, and because of this, it can often make him a sneaky underdog bet against a lot of fighters, particularly those who aren’t as proven. Unfortunately for Trizano, however, I’m not sure this is the spot for him to scrap his way to a win.

“Mean” Hakeem Dawodu is a high-level opponent. His striking is sharp and precise, his defensive grappling is by no means impenetrable (as seen in his last fight against Movsar Evloev), but his ability to get back up to his feet makes him tricky to hold down and mount offense against on the mat.

Trizano will have a 3-inch height advantage, but with Dawodu’s technical striking edge and 2-inch reach advantage (per UFCStats.com), I’m not sure we see this make much of a difference, other than how they look at stare downs.

All in all, I expect Dawodu to out-work and out-manoeuvre Trizano on the feet, even when he’s forced to strike off his back foot due to Trizano marching forward. Should Trizano look to work in some wrestling, he could have some minor success getting takedowns, but I see Dawodu getting back to his feet without too much hassle. I’m taking Hakeem Dawodu’s moneyline as the opening piece of a two-leg parlay.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano Pick

1st Parlay Leg: Hakeem Dawodu Moneyline @ -175

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Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland Prediction

Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland

Main Event - Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

Since moving up to middleweight, Sean Strickland has fought 4 times, going to a decision on 3 occasions.

With both fighters over the age of 30, and with a combined 27 UFC fights under their belt, it’s fairly safe to say that Hermansson and Strickland are known commodities at this point.

Hermansson has decent volume striking, solid grappling, and a seriously dangerous submission game. And Strickland offers highly effective pressure boxing, decent grappling, and exceptional conditioning. On the feet, I expect to see Strickland winning the majority of minutes through his forward motion and greater output. Strickland isn’t averse to taking fights to the mat, but given Hermansson’s slick BJJ skills, I think it’s far more likely that we see Strickland looking to keep the fight standing, with Hermansson the one looking to force the grappling. Strickland hasn’t always shown the best fight IQ, so I wouldn’t put it past him to stop a takedown attempt from Hermansson and look to reverse into a takedown of his own, which would be ill-advised given how good Hermansson is at throwing up submissions off his back. Nevertheless, I believe Strickland has got what it takes to keep himself safe in these positions, either leading to him winning minutes in top control, or him disengaging and getting back to striking.

Unlike Strickland, Hermansson has shown a tendency to get rocked in his most recent fights, and as someone who is looking to bet the over, that is a concern. That said, Strickland is someone whose fighting style is predicated on dragging his opponents into deep water and making it a war of attrition, as opposed to simply looking for the one big kill shot. For this reason, I’m less concerned about Hermansson getting starched early, as he was against Jared Cannonier at the back end of 2019.

The other threat I see causing concern to the over, is an early Hermansson submission, but given that Strickland has never been submitted in MMA, nor even allowed an attempt against him in the UFC (per UFCStats.com), it does seem like a seriously low percentage outcome.

So, all things considered, I see this fight going past the first 2.5 rounds at a high clip, with the biggest jeopardising factors being an uncharacteristic early KO from Strickland, or a quick submission from Hermansson against a guy who’s even been close to getting submitted inside the Octagon. I’m taking the over 2.5 rounds prop to close out my two-leg parlay.